Exit polls predict tight race in 2026 West Bengal assembly elections, BJP edges TMC

Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections on Wednesday pointed to a dramatic contest, with most several pollsters giving the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an edge over the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the state. According to People's Pulse, the TMC could emerge ahead with 177–187 seats, while the BJP is projected at 95–110. However, most other surveys indicate a BJP advantage. Matrize has projected 146–161 seats for the BJP against 125–140 for the TMC. P-Marq has given the BJP a wider lead at 150–175 seats, placing the TMC at 118–138. Poll Diary has forecast 142–171 seats for the BJP and 99–127 for the TMC, while JVC projections suggest a tighter race, giving the BJP 138–159 seats and the TMC 131–152. The Left Front, Congress and others, are projected to win only a handful of seats across surveys, underlining the largely bipolar nature of the contest. The exit poll projections come as voting for the final phase concluded on Wednesday evening with robust turnout, touching around 90% before the close of polling. Districts such as Purba Bardhaman, Hooghly and Nadia recorded turnout above 90%, reflecting strong voter participation across the state. The 2026 assembly election has been widely seen as a direct contest between the ruling TMC, seeking a fourth consecutive term under chief minister Mamata Banerjee, and a resurgent BJP aiming for its first government in the state. The high turnout has been interpreted differently by the two main contenders. While the TMC expressed confidence that the numbers reflect support for its governance and welfare schemes, the BJP maintained that the surge signals a desire for political change. The final phase, covering 142 constituencies largely in south Bengal and Kolkata, was considered crucial for the TMC, which had dominated the region in 2021. For the BJP, it was an opportunity to expand its footprint in urban constituencies and key voter segments. With over 3.21 crore voters and more than 1,400 candidates in the fray, the outcome of the election is expected to have significant political implications beyond the state. Counting of votes will take place on May 4, when it will become clear whether the exit polls accurately captured the mood of the electorate or if West Bengal delivers another surprise verdict.