Experts say UAE exit from OPEC and OPEC+ could raise risk of oil price war
Analysts told TASS the move may reflect pressure to boost production, while the pact may endure if Saudi Arabia and Russia remain aligned
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Energy analysts told TASS that the UAE’s reported decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ from May 1, 2026 could increase pressure for higher output and, after Middle East conflict conditions ease, raise the risk of an oil price war.
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The global oil market may face a price war after the end of the conflict in the Middle East and the restoration of hydrocarbon supplies, Alexander Frolov, editor-in-chief of InfoTEK, told TASS while commenting on the United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+.
"Following the end of the conflict in the Middle East and the full recovery of hydrocarbon supplies, we may face a price war, when instead of maximizing profit on each barrel, parties will seek to increase their market share," Frolov said.
In his view, the UAE’s decision indirectly indicates doubts about the country’s ability to maintain non-oil and gas revenues at previous levels after the conflict ends. "Therefore, they will seek to maximize crude production and the output of petroleum products. The UAE is the third-largest exporter of petroleum products after the United States and Russia," he said.
He added that if the UAE sharply increases production, it could trigger a response from OPEC+ and put the format’s very existence at risk.
Alexey Belogoryev, research director at the Institute of Energy and Finance, said the fundamental reason for the UAE’s exit is the growing contradiction between countries’ need to increase production and the strict limits imposed within OPEC+.
At the same time, Belogoryev said the OPEC+ agreement will continue to function as long as the informal partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia remains in place. "As long as their positions more or less align, the agreement will continue to operate," he said.
Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, 2026. According to WAM, the decision is in line with the country’s long-term economic strategy.
