Fears for Bangladesh's political future two years after uprising

Just two years after a student-led uprising ended the nearly 16-year rule of Sheikh Hasina, many fear Bangladesh is slipping backward.

With Hasina, now in exile in India, planning a return in December and critics accusing the current government of failing to deliver on its promises, the country's political future is once again in doubt.

"At the end of the day, we did not see the elimination of discrimination, the creation of an inclusive society, or the new political order that was promised," Mohammad Tanzimuddin Khan, a professor of international relations at Dhaka University, told DW.

"It seems we are forgetting the very reasons behind the uprising of last July, especially those who came to power."

The protest movement began in 2018 over a controversial quota system for government jobs. In 2024, a court-backed move to reinstate parts of the system sparked fresh demonstrations that grew into a wider anti-government uprising.

In August 2024, after more than 1,000 people were killed in the unrest, then Prime Minister Hasina fled to India.

Rebuilding Bangladesh's institutions

Bangladesh's interim government, which was led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus and backed by the military and key figures from the uprising, facilitated the signing of a reform roadmap. It was named the "July Charter" after the month when the uprising that toppled Hasina began.

In a February 2026 referendum, around 70% of voters approved the charter, which proposed term limits for prime ministers, the creation of an upper house of parliament, stronger presidential powers and greater judicial independence.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won a decisive majority in a general election that took place alongside the referendum.

Critics say the BNP has since failed to implement several pre-election reform commitments.

Ali Riaz, who led the interim government's Constitution Reform Commission, said there had been "time-bound commitments," including the creation of a constitutional reform council and steps to implement reforms within 180 working days.

"That was not done," he said, adding that it was "deeply regrettable."

Is Bangladesh moving in the wrong direction?

The interim government introduced 133 ordinances as part of its reform agenda, but after the BNP came to power, it refused to adopt 20 of them — including measures concerning the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), the Anti-Corruption Commission, enforced disappearances and referendums.

The BNP argues that constitutional and institutional changes should be enacted through proper legislative procedures in Parliament.

The BNP and the opposition Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance have clashed over the July Charter, including proposals for a constituent assembly to oversee constitutional reforms.

Salahuddin Ahmed, who led the BNP's representatives in the National Consensus Commission, now serves as Bangladesh's Home Minister.

Speaking in Parliament in March, Ahmed described the charter's implementation order as "a document of endless deception" by the interim government.

Asif Mahmud, spokesperson for the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP), accused the BNP of "betraying the public" on its reform promises and cast doubt on "whether voters would trust the party again if a similar political moment were to arise."

Mahmud, a leading figure in the uprising who later served as an adviser in the interim government before resigning ahead of the national election, told DW: "The BNP is taking the country backward by revoking the very ordinances and reforms that the interim government had implemented."

However, Khan believes the opposition party also bears responsibility for this. "It is not just the ruling party; there is no sign of the opposition breaking free from this tendency either."

While he sees some change in the way prime ministerial power is exercised, he believes "politicization has returned to major institutions, including educational ones."

Have public aspirations been realized?

Mahmud said "political parties were eager to secure power" through early elections, forcing student leaders of the uprising to "make compromises on key reform demands."

Alleged enforced disappearances were among the most serious accusations against Hasina's government. A commission set up by the interim administration reported that, of 1,913 complaints received, 1,569 were verified and classified as cases of enforced disappearance.

Among those who later returned alive, about 75% were linked to the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami and 22% to the BNP, the main political rivals of Hasina's Awami League party.

In an effort to prevent future abuses, Bangladesh signed the UN Convention against Enforced Disappearances in August 2024. The interim government later introduced an ordinance to criminalize the practice.

"We wanted to ensure permanence by incorporating this into the constitution and making the necessary legal changes," Asif Mahmud said.

However, rather than seeking parliamentary approval for the ordinance, the BNP-led government published a new draft bill in July 2026.

Critics say the proposal weakened safeguards by assigning investigations into alleged enforced disappearances from the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) to the police.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) warned that "allowing the police to investigate enforced disappearances will not ensure accountability and will not create the deterrence necessary to bring this practice to an end."

HRW also cited the April 21 alleged abduction of Miraj Sheikh by men allegedly posing as Coast Guard personnel as the first reported enforced disappearance since the 2024 uprising. More than three months later, his whereabouts remain unknown.

"We see signs of a return to those old times," Khan said. "Naturally, this is alarming."

The 'Hasina Factor' persists in Bangladesh politics

The Awami League and its affiliated organizations remain banned under an executive order and were excluded from February's elections.

Hasina, meanwhile, has been sentenced to death by Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal over crimes against humanity committed during the 2024 uprising and remains self-exiled in India.

Yet despite her fall from power, Hasina and her Awami League continue to loom large over Bangladesh's political landscape.

In a Reuters interview last month, Hasina said she plans to return to Bangladesh in December and surrender to the authorities.

The authorities in Dhaka "want to take me back, they are repeatedly sending letters to India seeking to have me sent back," she said. "I will go myself."

"I believe in justice and I feel that once proceedings start, it will be clear to the people how farcical the court is," Hasina added, "and that I want to prove it."

The announcement of her planned return has fueled fresh debate.

NCP spokesperson Asif Mahmud argued that "even India no longer wishes to host Hasina" and suggested her remarks reflect growing uncertainty about her future there.

Mahmud added that sheltering Hasina now provides India with little political benefit and complicates relations with Bangladesh's current government.

Bangladesh's attorney general has declared that Hasina would be arrested immediately upon her return and stand trial.

Ali Riaz, however, warned that Hasina's return could create new challenges. "During the trial proceedings, she and her followers might attempt to destabilize the law-and-order situation in Bangladesh for political gain," he said, calling on the government to guard against any resulting instability.

Others, however, see a different possibility. Khan said the tensions surrounding Hasina's return could instead help "forge broader political unity in a deeply divided country."