Five Indian State Elections: BJP Targets Bengal as Opposition Defends Strongholds

NEW DELHI: BJP is looking to take down the opposition in one of its few remaining strongholds West Bengal, while its rivals hope to hold their line in their redoubts in eastern and southern India, with the results to five assemblies polls - Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry - set to offer a peek into the broader political mood of the nation.

Reverberations of the results in territories concentrated in the south and east of India will echo nationally, as the match-ups include intra-opposition battles, besides BJP confronting its rivals. The results may have serious repercussions for the opposition INDIA bloc, as Congress has ruffled feathers by being lukewarm in its partnership with DMK, and by its continuing dissonance with TMC in contrast to the Mamata-positive vibes of other allies like Samajwadi Party, JMM and RJD.

At stake on Monday is the fate of two regional colossus - DMK (TN) and TMC (Bengal) - who also are the key members of the anti-BJP coalition. DMK-led by M K Stalin was seen as secure in its southern stronghold of TN till the newbie TVK of supertstar Vijay made a late charge to make the mandate uncertain.

While DMK is confident that Vijay has cut largely into AIADMK votes, which should make its task easier, there are doubts in certain pockets about how the "silent" women have cast their choice. A surge in such a demographic shift towards the new party can seriously test DMK. Without Vijay's entry, DMK was likely to repeat its Lok Sabha sweep against a post-Jayalalithaa AIADMK.

But the most keenly watched outcome would be Bengal. BJP led by PM Narendra Modi's extended campaign is looking to spread its national footprint by conquering a new territory that has been its long cherished dream. At the same time, Mamata Banerjee, who too mounted an aggressive campaign to counter BJP's charge, would be tested for her famed resilience and connect to the grassroots.

The exit polls have sown confusion about the fate of the Bengal elections by giving divergent verdicts in favour of the two parties. A win for BJP in Bengal will be one of its most consequential assembly victories. The state sends the third largest contingent of MPs to LS, which will be a big plus for the governing party at the Centre in the 2029 LS polls.

For Congress, Kerala could be the end of its victory drought. The exit polls have predicted a Congress win over the ruling Left Front. If the Left loses, it would for the first time be without a govt since 1977. But a Congress failure now - third successive defeat in the state which otherwise has been famous for unseating the governing party - would be a debilitating blow to the already weakened national party.

That exit polls are all but unanimous in predicting BJP's third successive win in Assam, the only state it has a govt in this round of polls. It would be a major feat for BJP which came from nowhere in 2016 to win a majority in the state against Congress, and has since marginalised the once-dominant party to being a side player with its campaign of religious polarisation.

Yet the riveting contest for Bengal is bound to put the other state battles in a shade. The state's cultural roots and personalities have been central to BJP's identity, but its standing as an unbreachable 'secular' fortress has been a sore spot for the party. A victory now will taste extra sweet, and attest to continuing resonance of its agenda under Modi.

Conversely, if Mamata succeeds in repulsing BJP's challenge, she will enhance her stature as one of the few grassroots opposition leaders capable of blunting the saffron onslaught at its sharpest in an election held under the shadow of SIR. A fourth successive win, three of them with BJP at power in the Centre, will burnish her credentials in the opposition camp.

UT of Puducherry is another assembly in the fray and political fallouts of its result are likely to be limited.