German Chancellor Merz prepares to blame Russia for Leipzig drone attack

BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing to blame Russia for the attempted drone attack in Leipzig and announce "extensive" sanctions, in what would mark a serious hardening of Berlin's posture toward Moscow.

The German government's plan is set to involve direct measures against Russian entities, while the EU moves forward with punishing new sanctions that are being prepared in parallel in Brussels, three officials familiar with the matter, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, told POLITICO and WELT AM SONNTAG.

The announcement is scheduled for early next week, coinciding with an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Ireland on Tuesday — but could also be made earlier depending on Merz, said two of the officials.

One of the officials familiar with the matter said that in response to the Leipzig drone incident, it was no longer enough to expel individual Russian diplomats or close the Russian House in Berlin. Tougher measures were needed, such as intensified sanctions or even more extensive arms deliveries to Ukraine. The three officials declined to provide further details on which precise measures Merz plans to announce.

It is unclear to what extent Berlin plans to hold individual Russian actors or the Russian government itself responsible for the attempted drone attack. Berlin is already preparing for a sharp counter reaction, as the officials said that Germany must prepare for punitive measures by Moscow.

The planned move lands amid high tension with Russia, amid a spate of incidents on European soil that top officials have described as "hybrid warfare." On Tuesday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise trip to Moscow where he warned the Russian government against escalating tensions with NATO. But the timing of Merz' expected announcement is also domestically sensitive. On Sunday next week, elections will take place in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, followed by elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin two weeks later. In Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) — known for its pro-Russia stance — is leading in the polls.

Merz had already announced Tuesday that there would be severe consequences for the Leipzig incident, though without naming any specific party.

“The drone attack in Leipzig, among other things, shows that we are also facing very real threats,” he said. “The federal government is making the perpetrators of hybrid attacks pay a price. They will pay for this.”

In response to questions from POLITICO about Germany's plan to hold Russia directly responsible, a government spokesperson said: “The Chancellery does not engage in speculation. The only thing that matters is the official attribution made by the federal government at its own discretion and after weighing all the results of the investigation.”

Zeitenwende 2.0

Several pieces of evidence point to Russia following the foiled attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport. According to the investigation, the drone, which had been rigged with explosives, was intended to strike a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, which is also used to transport military equipment.

According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, U.S. intelligence assessments directly linked Russia to the drone. There are also parallels to a series of sabotage attacks against European air cargo in 2024, which Russian intelligence services are suspected of carrying out. Moscow has denied any involvement.

So far, it remains unclear what new information has led Berlin to pin the blame directly on Russia. The threshold of evidence required for an official attribution is high and, in the past, such an attribution has been avoided, with German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt saying earlier this month that, "the key is to have the necessary evidence or a very strong suspicion."

The move has been described by two officials as a “Zeitenwende 2.0,” a reference to the historic shift on defense that former Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The discovery of a weapons cache near Berlin also played a role in the German shift. In a wooded area near lake Müggelsee, agents from the German domestic intelligence service discovered an underground cache containing two semi-automatic weapons. The case came to light through a report by the investigative consortium of German media outlets NDR, WDR and the Süddeutsche Zeitung, even though the discovery had was made in October of last year.

According to the report, the two weapons were packed in weatherproof containers and were in like-new condition. The cache also contained an unusually large amount of ammunition. The weapons were reportedly ready for immediate use. Investigators rendered them inoperable on the spot, returned them to the hiding place and kept the location under surveillance — but they never spotted anyone going to the site.

Germany's Federal Prosecutor General is now investigating the matter on suspicion of preparation for a serious act of violence threatening the state.

After the case came to light, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt spoke of a high-risk situation and suggested that the weapons might have been intended for use in attacks in Berlin. He avoided drawing a direct connection to Russia but said that the involvement of foreign powers could not be ruled out.

In recent weeks, there has been a spate of security-related incidents in NATO countries. In Romania, a marine drone loaded with explosives was discovered a few hundred meters from the Neptun Deep gas project in the Black Sea and neutralized by Romanian armed forces. President Nicușor Dan explicitly blamed Russia for the incident. A few days later, Slovak police foiled a planned arson attack on a drone factory; it remains unclear who was behind it. In Estonia, authorities are investigating a possible Russian involvement following an arson attack on a defense contractor. Explosions at ammunition plants in Italy and Bulgaria are also under investigation; though there is no clear evidence of Russian sabotage in those cases so far.

Against this backdrop, another comprehensive package of sanctions against Russia is now being prepared at the EU level.

It is set to be discussed at the informal EU foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Wicklow, Ireland, according to three EU diplomats with direct knowledge of the discussions, and who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the private topic. According to one of the diplomats, 1,600 listings for sanctions are currently being reviewed, including 800 individuals and 800 companies from Russia. The sanctions are expected to be adopted in mid-October.

Another diplomat said that the use of frozen Russian state bank assets is once again under discussion, even though this is a longer-term process and will require attempts to persuade Belgium, which has long resisted the idea. By far the largest portion of Russian central bank reserves frozen in the EU is held by Brussels-based Euroclear. The Belgian financial firm is one of the most important central securities depositories and Bart De Wever's government is sensitive to the prospect of Russian retaliation.