Gold faces downside pressure as oil surges on stalled US-Iran talks; FOMC looms

Spot gold is expected to face continued downside pressure unless oil prices come down, so US-Iran talk news flow is to be closely monitored.

Gold price prediction today: Any upside in gold prices is likely to be capped by gains in crude oil prices, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

Gold Performance: Spot gold prices came under renewed selling pressure Monday as oil prices surged yet again due to stalled US-Iran talks. At the time of writing this article, spot gold was trading at $4678, down by 0.75% for the day. In the week ending April 24, the yellow metal closed with a weekly loss of 2.5% at $4710 -- its first weekly loss in five weeks.

Geopolitics and oil: The much anticipated weekend US-Iran meeting scheduled to take place in Pakistan did not take place. On Monday, Iran gave the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, which includes postponing nuclear negotiations. The proposal includes nuclear talks later after a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted. The White House has not given any positive indications on the proposal saying the US will only make a deal that puts the American people first. Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz are now close to zero, compared with about 135 before the conflict began Feb. 28. Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy warned that the oil market faces a guaranteed supply loss of around one billion barrels as it would take time to revive flows once the strait reopens.

Data roundup: Dallas Fed manufacturing Activity fell by 2.3% in April Vs the estimate of an increase of 0.90%. University of Michigan consumer sentiment, in its April final reading, came in at 49.8 (near record lows) Vs the estimate of 48.50, while one-year inflation expectations stood at 4.7% (estimate 4.7%). Ten-year inflation expectations at 3.5% were hotter than the estimated 3.4% though. China's fiscal spending in March fell 2.5% from a year earlier as China's Q1 economic growth expanded 5% from a year ago, the fastest in three quarters.

Dollar Index and yields: Dollar Index declined on April 27 on US-Iran talk hopes. At the time of writing, the Index was hovering around 98.39, down by 0.15% for the day. Two-year US yields at 3.80% were up by 2 bps, while 10-year yields at 4.33% were up by 3 bps. In the week ending April 24, the Dollar Index was up by 0.50% for the week, whereas, 2-year US yields at 3.78% were up by 2% for the week, while ten-year yields at 4.31% were up by nearly 1.5%.

CFTC positioning: Money managers decreased their bullish gold bets by 3,352 net-long positions to 95,498 in the week ending April 21. Long-only positions fell 2,730 lots to 125,908 in the week ending April 21, while short-only positions rose 622 lots to 30,410-- the highest in almost six months.

India's gold imports fall: India's imports fell to $59.59 billion in March 2026, down from $63.71 billion the previous month and 6.5% lower than a year earlier. NDTV profit reported that due to a combination of factors like front-loaded buying earlier in 2026 on duty hike expectations, subdued retail demand and tighter liquidity conditions, India's gold imports dropped more than 50% year-on-year from 50.46 tons in March 2025 to an estimated 22–24 tonnes in March 2026, making it the third-lowest March level in the past two decades.

ETF holdings: As of April 24, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 99 MOz, up by 0.05 MOz YTD but down by 1.92 MOz since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28.

Upcoming data and events: Major US data on deck in near term include ADP weekly employment change (April 28), Conference Board consumer confidence (April 28), real personal spending (April 30), PCE Price Index (April 30), Q1 annualized GDP (April 30) and ISM manufacturing Index (May 1). China's PMIs and the Eurozone's April CPI will be released on April 30. Apart from US-Iran talks, investors will also focus on the FOMC's monetary decision due on April 29. The Central Bank is expected to signal a cautious stance on monetary policy as fuel costs and inflation rise due to the Iran war. Investors will look for the possible rate path. The Bank of England and the European Central Banks will announce their monetary policy on April 30. Although they are expected to keep the benchmark rates steady, probabilities of rate hikes by the year-end have increased due inflation risks. The Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision on April 28. It is widely expected to keep the benchmark rate steady at 0.75%. As per overnight implied dates, investors expect the Bank of Japan, the ECB and the BoE to hike rates 1.8, 2.53 and 2.30 times respectively by the year-end, whereas the Fed is expected to deliver 0.33 rate cuts by the end of the year-end.

Gold Price Outlook: Spot gold is expected to face continued downside pressure unless oil prices come down, so US-Iran talk news flow is to be closely monitored. The US FOMC may lean hawkish in its monetary policy decision due on April 29. The yellow metal may test support at $4600 in the short term. Interim support is at $4667. Next major support is at $4447. Resistance is at $4745/$4833.