Gold Prices Face Corrective Pressure Near $4,400/oz Amid Strong US Jobs Data

Gold prices started the week near $4,400/oz after recording a weekly decline.

Gold price prediction today: Gold seems to be facing pressures from multiple fronts, entering a corrective phase, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Here’s is what he has to say about the gold price outlook: Gold has entered a corrective phase after facing strong selling pressure from the recent Rs 163,000–164,000 zone. Prices have slipped below the 20-day average and are currently around Rs 152,300, suggesting that the near-term bias remains cautious. The broader structure is still range-bound, but the sharp rejection from recent highs indicates that Rs 160,000–163,500 remains an important supply zone. Gold will need to reclaim Rs 156,300–157,000 to regain positive momentum, while further weakness could bring lower support zones into focus. From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day average is at Rs 156,358, while the upper band stands at Rs 163,463 and the lower band at Rs 149,254. Prices are moving towards the lower band after reversing from the upper band, highlighting increased selling pressure. The Rs 149,000–150,000 area therefore becomes an important support zone for the week. Taking the recent rally from approximately Rs 140,000 to Rs 164,000, Fibonacci retracement levels are placed around Rs 158,300 (23.6%), Rs 154,800 (38.2%), Rs 152,000 (50%) and Rs 149,200 (61.8%). Gold is currently testing the 50% retracement area, making Rs 152,000 an important immediate level. A break below it could extend the correction towards Rs 149,000, while holding this zone may trigger a recovery. Overall, the weekly bias remains neutral to mildly bearish. Immediate support is placed at Rs 152,000, followed by Rs 149,000–149,300 and Rs 146,000. Resistance is seen at Rs 154,800, followed by Rs 156,300–158,300 and Rs 163,500.

Support: Rs 152,000 | Rs 149,000–149,300 | Rs 146,000

Resistance: Rs 154,800 | Rs 156,300–158,300 | Rs 163,500

Gold Price Outlook

Gold prices started the week near $4,400/oz after recording a weekly decline, as stronger-than-expected US employment data strengthened expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, sharply exceeding expectations of around 55,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Adding to the strength, June and July payroll figures were revised higher by a combined 55,000, reinforcing signs that the US labour market remains resilient despite restrictive monetary conditions. Following the data, markets raised the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the September 15–16 meeting to around 60%, compared with roughly 50% previously, supporting the US dollar and keeping pressure on non-yielding bullion. However, gold remained relatively resilient as renewed geopolitical tensions provided safe-haven support. Fresh US-Iran attacks involving vessels in the Gulf pushed crude, raising concerns that another increase in energy costs could add to inflationary pressures and further complicate the Fed’s policy outlook. The combination of stronger employment and higher oil prices therefore leaves gold caught between hawkish monetary-policy expectations and geopolitical demand. Attention now shifts firmly towards this week’s US inflation releases, with PPI due Thursday followed by CPI on Friday. Stronger inflation could reinforce expectations of a September hike and pressure gold, while softer readings could reduce hike expectations and provide room for bullion to recover.