Goldman Sachs Raises China EV Export Forecasts Amid Global Market Growth
Quick Look
- Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for China's passenger vehicle exports, projecting 7.8 million units in 2026 and 10 million by 2030.
- This increase is driven by the accelerating exports of competitive new-energy vehicle models and China's consolidating foothold in the global auto market.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) has spurred Chinese carmakers to consolidate their foothold in the global auto market.
Spurred by the rising popularity of electric vehicles (EVs), Chinese carmakers are consolidating their foothold in the global auto market, prompting international banks like Goldman Sachs to significantly raise their export forecasts.
“China’s new-energy vehicle exports have been accelerating, with 63 per cent year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by increasing supply of competitive models,” Goldman Sachs said in a research report released on Thursday. “We are raising our China passenger vehicle export volume by 6 to 11 per cent over 2026 to 2030, expecting 7.8 million cars in 2026 to 10 million units in 2030.”
Excluding mainland China and the US, sales of Chinese-branded cars worldwide would account for 17 per cent of the global total in 2030, it added.
Chinese carmakers sold a total of 1 million units in western European countries last year.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
China's passenger vehicle export volume will reach 7.8 million units in 2026.
Very likely · Within months
China's passenger vehicle export volume will reach 10 million units in 2030.
Likely · Within years
