Hong Kong home prices forecast to rise 15% year-on-year but remain below 2021 peak

Hong Kong’s home prices will end the year 15 per cent higher than a year earlier, but still 16 per cent below their high-water mark in 2021, according to local property agency Midland Realty.

Underpinning the positive forecast, the city’s banks were not likely to follow an increase in US interest rates by the Federal Reserve if one occurred this year, executives from the agency said at a press conference on Thursday.

Dave Ma Tai-yeung, CEO of Midland (Residential), said that as the market gradually digested geopolitical and external economic uncertainties, new property launches were accelerating and buyers were returning to the market.

“With the improved market sentiment, developers will accelerate the launch of new projects, and the residential market is expected to further recover,” Ma said.

First-hand residential property transactions, after falling for two consecutive months to just over 800 units in June and July, rebounded to 1,100 units in August, while second-hand residential transactions were also gradually stabilising, according to Midland’s data.

Ma said that first-hand property transactions in the final quarter would increase by 50 per cent quarter on quarter to 5,100 units, while secondary market transactions would rise by 10 per cent to 12,700.

“With residential rents hitting new highs one after another, there is room for property prices to catch up,” Ma said.