Hong Kong must plan for the population it wants to have

Hong Kong must plan for the population it wants to have

As the population ages, becomes more mobile and welcomes more non-locals, data-based planning is needed to inform and improve urban planning

Dr Jane Lee, MH, JP, is president of Our Hong Kong Foundation and founding CEO of Hong Kong Policy Research Institute.

Published: 5:30am, 10 Sep 2026

What kind of population is Hong Kong planning for? That is the question the chief executive’s policy address must tackle as the Northern Metropolis begins to take shape.

Much more than just another new town, the Northern Metropolis is Hong Kong’s most consequential project for its next phase of development, expected to house 2.5 million residents and provide 650,000 jobs. The numbers are well known, but they are not the story.

This population of 2.5 million will be like no other. The Northern Metropolis’ deep integration with Shenzhen and the Greater Bay Area means its residents will live, work, study and access services on both sides of the border. As Hong Kong’s population becomes increasingly dynamic and mobile, the Northern Metropolis should serve as the starting point for developing a citywide population strategy that aligns public policies with the realities of a cross-boundary lifestyle.

Hong Kong’s demographic profile is undergoing substantial changes. Fertility remains exceptionally low, at 0.7 to 0.8 births per woman. Residents 65 years and older now account for about 24 per cent of the population. Meanwhile, the number of residents aged 15 to 34 years fell from 1.747 million in 2018 to 1.461 million last year – a decrease of 285,900 people, or 16.4 per cent, in seven years.

At the same time, talent admission schemes since 2022 have brought a more varied population to Hong Kong. According to the latest Immigration Department figures released in March, the government has received about 600,000 applications and approved more than 410,000 as of end-February. Of these, about 300,000 approved cases involved mainland talent and nearly 110,000 involved holders of non-mainland passports. Many have entered finance, innovation and technology, information and communications technology, trade and other professional fields.

These individuals should not be viewed merely as inputs into the labour market. They are new Hongkongers. They are parents considering where their children should study; they are tenants or potential homebuyers; they are users of medical, childcare, transport and community services. Their degree of commitment to Hong Kong will depend not only on the job or investment opportunities, but also on the quality of life the city offers.