India's Monsoon Gains Strength After Dry June, Widespread Rain and Storms Forecast
IMD predicts significant monsoon advancement into North and Northwest India, with heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in several regions, offering relief but also potential disruptions.
Quick Look
- After a rain-deficient June, India's southwest monsoon is gaining momentum, with the IMD forecasting widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across many states from July 2.
- Monsoon conditions are favorable for further advancement into North and Northwest India, bringing much-needed relief but also warnings of heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in regions like Mumbai, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra, potentially causing disruptions.
- Farmers anticipate a boost for kharif sowing.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
India experienced a rain-deficient June, leading to concerns about the monsoon season's impact on agriculture and water resources. The southwest monsoon is now showing signs of gaining momentum across large parts of the country.
Weather Tomorrow: After a rain-deficient June, the southwest monsoon is finally showing signs of gaining momentum across large parts of India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds across several states on July 2 and the days that follow.
The weather department has also indicated that monsoon conditions are becoming favourable for further advancement into parts of north and northwest India, bringing much-needed relief to regions that have been waiting for seasonal rains.
Monsoon likely to advance across North India
According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon is expected to make further progress over the next two to three days.
The monsoon may cover the remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh, along with the entire Daman and Diu region. It is also likely to advance into most parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab, besides some additional areas of Rajasthan. The expected rainfall activity could help reduce the country's current rainfall deficit, which remains close to 40 per cent.
Low-pressure system may boost rainfall
The IMD has said that a low-pressure area is likely to form over the northwest Bay of Bengal around Friday.
This weather system could enhance rainfall activity across Odisha, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat during the first 10 days of July.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the upcoming wet spell is likely to support kharif sowing, especially in rain-fed agricultural regions of central India that depend heavily on monsoon rainfall.
Mumbai weather tomorrow: Orange alert for heavy rain
The IMD has issued an Orange Alert for the Konkan region, including Mumbai, due to the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall.
What to expect in Mumbai
Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely from July 2 to July 4
Extremely heavy rainfall possible at isolated locations
Waterlogging and traffic disruptions may continue
Risk of minor landslides in ghat areas of central Maharashtra
Several parts of Mumbai have already witnessed intense monsoon showers, leading to flooding in low-lying areas, traffic snarls and tree fall incidents.
Residents have been advised to avoid unnecessary travel and stay away from weak structures during periods of intense rain.
Uttarakhand rain alert till July 4
Heavy rainfall activity is expected to continue in parts of Uttarakhand over the next few days.
Districts under alert
Rudraprayag
Nainital
Dehradun
Haridwar
Pauri Garhwal
Udham Singh Nagar
The IMD has warned of rainfall intensity ranging between 5 mm and 15 mm per hour in some locations, accompanied by thunderstorms.
Authorities have advised residents and tourists to avoid rivers, streams and landslide-prone areas.
Delhi weather tomorrow: Rain, thunderstorms likely
Delhi-NCR is likely to witness cloudy skies, moderate rainfall and thunderstorms on July 2 as monsoon conditions strengthen over the region.
Delhi weather forecast
Generally cloudy sky
Moderate rain expected
Thunderstorms with gusty winds of 40–50 kmph
Isolated heavy rainfall possible in parts of Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh
The IMD has issued a Yellow Alert for gusty surface winds during afternoon and evening hours.
Rain forecast for other regions
Central India
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall. Some areas may witness heavy to very heavy rain.
East India
Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal are likely to experience thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall at isolated places.
Northwest India
Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir are expected to receive widespread rainfall, with isolated locations likely to record very heavy showers.
South India
Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep are likely to witness widespread rainfall accompanied by strong surface winds.
July rainfall outlook remains below normal
While rainfall activity is expected to increase significantly during the first half of July, the IMD has cautioned that overall monthly rainfall across India is likely to remain below normal.
However, some regions may receive normal to above-normal rainfall, including:
Parts of northwest India
Northeast India
East-central India
Eastern peninsular India
The weather department has also forecast above-normal temperatures in many parts of the country during July.
What the IMD says
The IMD expects July to begin with active monsoon conditions across central, western, eastern and northwestern India. Along with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely to remain major weather hazards over the coming days.
For farmers, the expected rainfall over the next week could improve soil moisture levels and provide a boost to ongoing kharif sowing operations across central India.
State-Wise Weather Prediction (July 1–7) Based on IMD Forecast
Delhi
Light to moderate rain on July 1.
Widespread rainfall expected from July 2-7.
Heavy rain likely between July 2-7.
Thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds up to 60 kmph throughout the week.
Haryana
Scattered rain on July 1.
Widespread rainfall from July 2-7.
Heavy rain likely July 2-7.
Thunderstorms and strong winds up to 60 kmph expected.
Punjab
Scattered rain on July 1.
Widespread rainfall from July 2-7.
Heavy rain likely July 2-4 and July 6-7.
Thunderstorms and gusty winds throughout the week.
Himachal Pradesh
Widespread rain throughout July 1-7.
Heavy rain on July 1, 4 and 7.
Very heavy rain likely on July 2-3 and July 5-6.
Risk of landslides in hilly areas.
Uttarakhand
Widespread rainfall throughout the week.
Very heavy rain likely July 1-3.
Heavy rain expected July 4-7.
Thunderstorms possible on most days.
Jammu & Kashmir
Widespread rainfall throughout July 1-7.
Heavy rain likely July 1-3.
Thunderstorms and gusty winds up to 60 kmph throughout the week.
Rajasthan
East Rajasthan
Scattered rain July 1-4.
Widespread rainfall July 5-7.
Heavy rain July 1-2 and July 5-7.
Very heavy rain likely July 3-4.
Thunderstorms and gusty winds all week.
West Rajasthan
Isolated to scattered rainfall throughout the week.
Dust storms likely July 3-5.
Thunderstorms and gusty winds expected.
Uttar Pradesh
West UP
Widespread rainfall July 1-2.
Scattered rain July 3-7.
Very heavy rain likely July 1.
Heavy rain July 2-3.
Thunderstorms expected.
East UP
Scattered rain July 1-5.
Widespread rainfall July 6-7.
Heavy rain July 1-3 and July 6-7.
Thunderstorms likely July 1-3.
Central India
Madhya Pradesh
Widespread rainfall throughout July 1-7.
Heavy rain likely in many districts.
Extremely heavy rainfall possible in western MP on July 3-4.
Very heavy rain expected:
West MP: July 2 and 5
East MP: July 2-5
Strong squally winds up to 70 kmph on July 1.
Significant lightning activity likely.
Chhattisgarh
Widespread rainfall all week.
Heavy rain likely July 3-7.
Very heavy rain expected July 1-2.
Vidarbha (Maharashtra)
Widespread rain July 1-5 and July 7.
Heavy rain on July 4 and July 7.
Very heavy rain possible July 1-3.
East India
Odisha
Widespread rainfall throughout the week.
Very heavy rain likely July 1-6.
Heavy rain expected on July 7.
West Bengal
Gangetic West Bengal
Widespread rainfall throughout the week.
Heavy rain on July 1 and 4.
Very heavy rain likely July 5-7.
Thunderstorms and lightning expected.
Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim
Widespread rainfall throughout the week.
Heavy rain likely on July 1.
Gusty winds up to 50 kmph possible.
Jharkhand
Widespread rainfall throughout July 1-7.
Heavy rain likely July 1-2 and July 5-6.
Thunderstorms and lightning expected.
Bihar
Widespread rainfall on July 1.
Scattered rain July 2-7.
Heavy rain likely July 1-4.
Thunderstorms and lightning expected.
Northeast India
Assam & Meghalaya
Widespread rain on July 1.
Scattered rainfall July 2-7.
Heavy rain likely July 1 and July 3-5.
Arunachal Pradesh
Widespread rainfall July 1-2.
Scattered rain July 3-7.
Heavy rain likely on July 1.
Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura
Widespread rain July 1-4.
Scattered rainfall July 5-7.
Heavy rain likely July 1-5.
West India
Maharashtra
Mumbai, Konkan & Goa
Widespread rainfall throughout the week.
Heavy rain July 1-5.
Very heavy rain July 6-7.
Extremely heavy rainfall possible at isolated places July 1-5.
Madhya Maharashtra
Widespread rain throughout July 1-7.
Heavy rain July 2-5.
Very heavy rain July 1 and July 6-7.
Extremely heavy rainfall possible July 2-5.
Marathwada
Widespread rainfall July 1-5.
Scattered rain July 6-7.
Heavy rain likely on July 1.
Gujarat
Widespread rainfall July 1-7.
Heavy rain July 1-5.
Very heavy rain July 6-7.
Extremely heavy rainfall possible July 1-5.
Saurashtra & Kutch
Scattered rain July 1-3 and July 7.
Widespread rainfall July 4-6.
Heavy rain on July 6.
Very heavy rain possible July 1-5.
South India
Kerala
Widespread rainfall throughout July 1-7.
Heavy rain likely July 2-7.
Very heavy rain possible July 1.
Karnataka
Coastal Karnataka
Widespread rainfall throughout the week.
Heavy rain July 1-2 and July 5-7.
Very heavy rain July 3-4.
Extremely heavy rainfall possible July 1-2 and July 5-7.
North Interior Karnataka
Heavy rain likely throughout July 1-7.
Strong surface winds expected.
South Interior Karnataka
Heavy rain July 1-4.
Very heavy rain likely July 5-7.
Telangana
Widespread rainfall July 1-2.
Scattered rain July 3-7.
Heavy rain July 1-2.
Gusty winds and thunderstorms likely.
Andhra Pradesh
Coastal Andhra Pradesh
Scattered rain July 1-4.
Widespread rainfall July 5-7.
Heavy rain on July 1 and July 4-6.
Rayalaseema
Scattered rainfall throughout the week.
Strong winds and thunderstorms expected.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal
Scattered rainfall throughout July 1-7.
Heavy rain likely July 3-4.
Thunderstorms and gusty winds possible.
Key States Under Highest Rainfall Risk This Week
Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is most likely in:
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra (Mumbai, Konkan, Ghats)
Gujarat
Odisha
Uttarakhand
Himachal Pradesh
Coastal Karnataka
Kerala
East Rajasthan
Gangetic West Bengal
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Monsoon will advance into remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Daman and Diu, and most parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, and some additional areas of Rajasthan.
Very likely · Within days
A low-pressure area will form over the northwest Bay of Bengal around Friday, enhancing rainfall across Odisha, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
Likely · Within days
Overall monthly rainfall across India is likely to remain below normal for July, despite increased activity in the first half.
Likely · Within months
Above-normal temperatures are forecast in many parts of the country during July.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What is the specific long-term impact on crop yields?
- How will authorities manage potential flood situations?
- What are the detailed regional breakdowns for above-normal rainfall?