India's Wheat Output Remains Stable Despite Weather Disruptions

India’s wheat output for the 2025–26 crop year is expected to remain steady despite weather disruptions, the agriculture ministry said on Sunday, even as an industry estimate suggested lower production.

The ministry said that the crop is “stable and resilient despite localised damage” caused by unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms. It described the season as “mixed but resilient,” with both weather challenges and farmer responses shaping the outcome.

An estimate by the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India (RFFI) on April 24 put wheat production at 110.65 million tonnes for 2025–26 (July–June). This is slightly higher than 109.63 million tonnes produced last year, but much lower than the government’s earlier estimate of 120.21 million tonnes. The previous year’s output stood at 117.94 million tonnes.

Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said the final figure is likely to fall between the two estimates. "While the federation has estimated wheat production of 110 million tonnes, the figure given by the agriculture ministry prior to the rainfall is 120 million tonnes. The reality will be somewhere between 110 and 120 million tonnes," he had said.

The crop was sown across 33.4 million hectares this year, with no reports of pest or disease attacks. Early sowing helped increase the area compared to last year. However, weather conditions affected the crop at key stages. High temperatures in February caused heat stress, reducing the grain-filling period and affecting yields. Later, untimely rain and hailstorms at the maturity stage led to localised damage to both yield and grain quality.

The ministry said some factors could make up for these losses. Around 0.6 million hectares of additional area was planted this year. Early sowing also helped some crops avoid heat stress. It added that more farmers are using improved seed varieties that are high-yielding and better able to handle heat and other stresses. Weed infestation during the crop’s growth was also low.

"It is anticipated that the adverse effects of weather anomalies will be largely compensated by increased area, early sowing, and improved varietal adoption, thereby supporting stable national wheat production as compared to the crop season of 2024-25," the ministry said.

Data from states also shows steady production. In Haryana, arrivals at mandis have crossed the procurement target of 75 lakh tonnes, with 56.13 lakh tonnes already purchased, about 9 lakh tonnes more than the same period last year. Madhya Pradesh has raised its procurement target from 78 lakh tonnes to 100 lakh tonnes after reporting higher-than-expected production. In Maharashtra, wheat output is estimated at around 22.90 lakh tonnes, continuing a steady rise. Arrivals from the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions have remained steady towards the end of April.

The ministry reiterated its view, saying, "While localised weather-related impacts have been observed, the overall wheat production scenario for 2025-26 remains stable and resilient, supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices and enhanced varietal adoption."