Iran's Geography: The Strait of Hormuz as a Weapon

For all the talk about preventing Iran from gaining a nuclear bomb, the regime in Tehran has found another very different type of weapon it can use against its enemies.

That is its geography, and more specifically the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran maintains it has control over the waterway while the US argues it should operate without restriction.

Even more confusingly, Iran insists the strait is closed until further notice, but Donald Trump and the military say it is open.

Some pundits on social media have labelled it "Schrödinger's Strait" in recent weeks – a waterway both open and closed, free and constrained at the same time.

But quips belie the severity of the situation and the risk to regional stability the shipping channel poses.

A third round of US strikes and Iranian retaliatory attacks have rattled the Gulf region, where there were hopes the barrages of missiles and drones it had copped since the beginning of the war were over.

The latest wave came as a result of Iran opening fire on a ship trying to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran said it had closed the waterway after firing what it called a warning shot that struck a vessel travelling on a route it considered to be unauthorised.

Washington hit back by bombing 140 military targets, according to US Central Command.

"President Trump, if shipping is attacked or if the Iranians want to act belligerent, then he will respond with overwhelming force," US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told Fox News.

"Because that's what you do. You show strength, you make sure the Iranians don't benefit from this. You make sure the strait continues to flow."

The eight words important to Iran

Even though Trump has declared he believes the ceasefire between the US and Iran is "over", and the deal that established that truce ahead of further negotiations is in tatters, it's worth referring back to it to get a sense of how this mess has developed.

It is particularly important given that Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, is citing it in his latest rhetorical attacks against the US.

Qalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander and current speaker of the Iranian parliament, pointed to paragraph five of the deal, which was signed three and a half weeks ago.

"Upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements, using its best efforts, for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa," the deal said.

In a post on social media platform X, Qalibaf highlighted "the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements".

"The era of one-sided deals is OVER," he posted.

"We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking."

That paragraph of the deal, on face value, is not that controversial. After all, it was Iran that placed the shipping lane in a chokehold in response to the intense bombardment of the US and Israel, and it was Iran that would have to wind that back.

But under the Iranian interpretation of the deal, that sentence goes to the very point it has been trying to make ever since the war began – that Tehran calls the shots and it is in charge in the Strait of Hormuz.

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US tries the in-fighting narrative

Over the weekend American media outlets reported that the US was demanding Iran issue a mea culpa over the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed parts of the Iranian security apparatus were trying to undermine the deal, as opposed to the regime's leadership.

That clearly hasn't happened.

"The Iranians need to get their house in order," Whitaker told Fox News.

"The folks that are shooting missiles and drones at ships need to make sure that they're coordinating with the people that are negotiating the peace deal and that they're all on the same page, because my sense is that they're not."

The IRGC announced Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Qalibaf, the regime's chief negotiator, is a former IRGC commander who has been deeply embedded in its ranks and circle of influence for decades.

But the idea that different parts of the Iranian machine are operating on different terms may be exacerbated by the absence of the country's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.

Last week he was nowhere to be seen during the days-long funeral ceremony for his father Ali Khamenei, who was killed when missiles tore through his Tehran compound on the first day of the war.

It is believed Mojtaba was seriously injured in the strike and it is speculated he has been left disfigured.

On the weekend, state television broadcast a statement, allegedly by his hand, in which he promised to "avenge the blood" of his father.

It's been reported the second Khamenei to lead Iran will host a commemoration ceremony for his father on Tuesday.