Iran's Revolutionary Guards Poised to Benefit from Potential US-Tehran Deal

DUBAI: Emerging outlines of a deal between Washington and Tehran to ​end their war contain a stinging paradox: sweeteners to coax Iran into compliance may strengthen an adversarial force that the U.S. and ​its Western allies consider a terrorist organisation.

For years, Iran's Revolutionary Guards thrived in the shadow of sanctions, building a sprawling commercial empire stretching from oil and construction to shipping, telecommunications and ports.

Now, as Tehran and Washington prepare for talks on a deal to end the war that could unlock billions of dollars for Iran and reopen its economy to global investment, the elite force is poised to be one of the biggest ‌beneficiaries.

Four senior Iranian sources ⁠described how ⁠the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was uniquely placed to capture a big chunk of any financial rewards that would accrue from sanctions relief, renewed oil exports and foreign investment.

Their central role may also prove to be one of the ​many obstacles to a deal: with the Guards so firmly enmeshed in Iranian business, their terrorism designation could significantly complicate efforts to free the economy from sanctions.

Founded by Iran's ​late revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Guards prospered under his successor Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gaining political power as they spearheaded efforts to project power across the Middle East and suppress dissent at home.

Since the war began on February 28 with strikes that killed Khamenei, the Guards have only expanded their power internally, helping to install his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the ​new supreme leader. They have signalled support for the deal to end the war.

One of the senior sources described ⁠the Guards as ‌the real winners of the war, saying that, having secured the survival of Iran's Islamic system, they were best placed to benefit from any lifting ​of sanctions - having already ​run most of Iran's sanctions-busting operations over recent decades.

A spokesperson for the Guards declined to comment.

The interim deal announced this week will ⁠allow waivers on sanctioned oil sales while any more comprehensive agreement struck in the coming period could lift ​all other sanctions and give Iran access to a $300-billion reconstruction fund.

The IRGC does not publish financial data, but any efforts ​to revive the economy will expand its considerable financial reach, a second senior source said, pointing to existing multibillion-dollar trade networks, oil activities, shipping operations and construction businesses.

The IRGC's engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbia, oversees hundreds of affiliated companies operating across major infrastructure and energy projects, and with involvement in telecommunications, car making, tourism and logistics, according to official statements and public records.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

With Iranian investment law requiring foreign firms to partner with locals, the sheer number of IRGC-linked companies means they become gatekeepers for potential investors into Iran's most lucrative sectors.

That reality means Western firms returning to Iran's market could find themselves operating alongside, or through, entities linked to the IRGC even ‌without direct engagement - at the risk of falling foul of any continued sanctions tied specifically to the Guards.

"The IRGC is the entity pulling all the strings behind the oil sector, so you can't ignore all of the legal effects of doing business with them," said Jeremy Paner, a ​former Treasury Department sanctions investigator who ​is now a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & ⁠Reed.

Even as the interim deal with Washington says Iranian oil exports will be authorized, "there's still legal exposure for U.S. companies because of the IRGC lurking in the background", Paner said. The U.S. Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, passed in 2016, allows victims of terrorist attacks to sue U.S. companies for aiding groups accused of terrorism such as the IRGC.

If ​no wider deal is reached and sanctions stay in place, the Guards will still benefit from the interim oil export waivers, and can maintain their tight grip on the economy through their experience in sanctions busting, the senior Iranian sources said.

Their economic rise was accelerated by the sanctions imposed over Iran's nuclear programme from the early 2000s, as they built networks to facilitate oil exports, shipping and trade through intermediaries and front companies.

The model became harder to sustain when U.S. President Donald Trump began a "maximum pressure" campaign after pulling the U.S. out of a 2015 nuclear deal between major powers in 2018, and then expanded U.S. sanctions further during his present term.

Those measures narrowed the room for sanctions evasion and increased the cost of running illicit networks, a third senior Iranian source said.