Iran weighs retaliation options following renewed US offensive

The renewed US offensive marks a fresh escalation in a conflict that has already disrupted shipping and energy supplies across the Middle East.

Iran fired missiles at US assets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq on Tuesday night after the United States launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran. The strikes marked a new escalation in the six-month conflict. Tehran now faces several options for retaliation, including expanding attacks on Gulf states, disrupting oil shipments and targeting Western interests. The renewed US offensive marks a fresh escalation in a conflict that has already disrupted shipping and energy supplies across the Middle East. Tehran now faces a choice between widening attacks across the region, tightening pressure on Gulf oil exports or taking the confrontation directly to Western interests.

Expand attacks on Gulf states

Iran could intensify strikes against US military facilities and other targets in Gulf states and Jordan, where it has repeatedly launched attacks since the war began on February 28. While US bases have been the primary targets, Iranian strikes have also hit energy infrastructure. A broader campaign against upstream oil and gas facilities could create a sharper shock for global energy markets and put additional political pressure on the Trump administration. Iran could also target power generation and water desalination plants in Gulf states. Such attacks would pose a significant threat to countries that are key US allies as well as major financial hubs.

Threaten Gulf oil supplies

One of Tehran’s most consequential options would be to further disrupt the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Mohsen Rezaei, the former Revolutionary Guards chief and secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has threatened to shut down oil exports if the economic pressure on Tehran continues. He said if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz or from anywhere in the Persian Gulf. The threat carries weight because the strait has already been severely disrupted. Iranian attacks and threats against shipping have largely halted traffic through the waterway, which carried around a fifth of global energy supplies before the conflict. Some tankers have continued to pass through the strait in recent weeks, but volumes remain very low. Missile, drone and speedboat attacks, along with threats against vessels, have repeatedly driven up oil prices during the six-month conflict. Any further disruption could send another shock through global energy markets.

Tighten pressure in the Red Sea

Iran could also rely on its regional allies to increase pressure on shipping routes outside the Persian Gulf. The Iran-backed Houthis have already restricted Red Sea shipping through attacks and threats against vessels, including warnings over Saudi shipping that carries crude towards Asia through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The disruption is increasingly affecting shipping decisions. Chinese shipping companies are now rerouting vessels away from Bab el-Mandeb, according to industry sources. Further attacks could heighten concerns in the oil market. Recent incidents include an attack targeting a vessel near Saudi Arabia’s main Red Sea oil terminal at Yanbu and a drone strike near the Suez Canal.

Take the fight to the West

Iran could also seek to retaliate beyond the Middle East through cyber operations or covert attacks. Western countries are largely beyond the range of Iran’s principal missile systems, but the Revolutionary Guards have historically used alternative methods to target adversaries. Britain has said Iran-linked hackers shut down a small electricity station, while US officials have said Tehran was likely behind cyberattacks on water plants in Minnesota. Iran has not commented on those allegations. Western security services have also accused Iran of recruiting people to carry out attacks or assassination attempts in Western countries. Tehran has denied those accusations. With direct US-Iran fighting now resuming, Tehran’s response could therefore extend well beyond the battlefield. Any decision to target Gulf energy infrastructure, choke shipping through Hormuz, widen attacks in the Red Sea or strike Western interests would risk turning the latest escalation into a broader regional and global crisis.