After a heart-stopping scrutiny, the population of Iceland has ruled out its accession to the European Union. In this Saturday's referendum, 52% of voters voted against reopening negotiations with Brussels, suspended for more than a decade. The result, still provisional in the absence of counting the last ballots in the Reykjavík metropolitan area, represents a severe setback for the community bloc, which aspired to incorporate a new net contributor, in addition to reinforcing its presence in the Arctic, a region of growing geopolitical interest.
A favorable result would not have guaranteed Iceland's accession to the community club, but only the beginning of a process to negotiate the conditions of eventual integration. Once an agreement was reached, Icelandic citizens would have spoken in a second referendum. The victory of the no stops short the possibility of Iceland becoming the 28th member of the EU.
Although the polls gave the pro-European side an advantage for months, the final stretch turned expectations upside down. After a campaign dominated by the cost of living, national sovereignty and fishing rights, opponents of membership have gained ground in recent days, as anticipated in the latest survey, published on Friday, which for the first time placed the no in the lead. The scrutiny has certified this change of course: the majority of Icelanders refuse to even sit down to negotiate with Brussels.
After coming to power a little less than two years ago, the center-left government led by social democrat Kristrún Frostadóttir announced its intention to hold a referendum in 2027. However, Donald Trump's threats about Greenland – located just 300 kilometers away – led the prime minister to accelerate the plans and call the consultation earlier than planned. Frostadóttir argued that Iceland, a founding member of NATO but without its own army and with only 400,000 inhabitants, faced a growing vulnerability that required immediate closer ties with the European bloc.
Although Trump confused Iceland up to four times when talking about his plans for Greenland, and the US ambassador in Reykjavík, William Long, went so far as to call the island the “future 52nd state,” security has not been a predominant issue during the election campaign. The debate has revolved much more around the economy and Icelandic fishing grounds.
With inflation above 5% and interest rates at 8%, Iceland overtook Switzerland a few months ago as the most expensive country in the world, according to Viska, the main Icelandic union. Given the volatility of the Icelandic crown, supporters of accession argued that an eventual adoption of the euro would lower the costs of loans and mortgages. Gudrun Hafsteinsdóttir, the leader of the Independence Party, the main opposition force, reiterated in recent weeks that EU integration would not alleviate these problems, and that Icelandic politicians were the only ones capable of remedying them.
The other major pillar of the rejection has been the protection of fishing, a strategic sector that generates 40% of exports and represents around 7% of the country's GDP. The fear of subjecting their valuable fishing grounds to the common fisheries policy gave wings to the Eurosceptics' campaign. Although the Frostadóttir Executive established the management of resources, the distribution of quotas and restrictions on foreign ownership as non-negotiable red lines, and despite the fact that commissioners Costas Kadis (Fisheries) and Marta Kos (Enlargement) promised flexibility in this regard, citizens have chosen to protect the exclusive control of their waters.
Despite the referendum result, Iceland will remain one of the EU's closest partners. The country – which already began accession talks in 2009 after the collapse of its banking system, before a Eurosceptic government froze them in 2013 – is part of the Schengen area and, together with Norway and Liechtenstein, is part of the European Economic Area. Therefore, it has full access to the single market, but it is also obliged to adopt much of the Community legislation without having the power to decide on its preparation.
The consultation also had a significant strategic dimension. In recent years, the Arctic has become an increasingly disputed scenario due to the melting of ice, the opening of new sea routes and the struggle for its natural resources. For the EU, incorporating Iceland would have significantly strengthened its position in a region where powers such as the United States, Russia and China compete to expand their influence.
As the polls anticipated, the pro-European option has only won in Reykjavík, and it has done so with a smaller margin than expected (56% of the votes). Both on the outskirts of the capital and in the rest of the country's regions, the majority of citizens have chosen to close the door to Brussels before even sitting down to negotiate.
Although the polls closed at 10:00 p.m. (midnight in mainland Spain), the vote has continued until early in the morning and is not yet final. Although the defenders of dialogue with the EU led almost the entire process, the trend changed in the last part of the count. Ballots from some remote locations were transported to counting centers by road, boat or plane.
