Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement Met with Guarded Optimism in Israel

The announcement of a framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, facilitated by the United States, has been met with guarded optimism in Israel. The agreement outlines a conditional process where the Lebanese army will regain control over its territory, pending the disarmament of non-state armed groups, notably Hezbollah. Israeli forces will then progressively withdraw from southern Lebanon, an area they have occupied since March, following a renewed offensive that has resulted in over 4,000 fatalities.

Yossi Mekelberg, a Chatham House fellow, cautioned that the agreement’s success hinges on its implementation, questioning whether it is a genuine accord or merely a symbolic gesture to appease the US. Hezbollah swiftly rejected the agreement, deeming it “null and void” and preferring the recently signed US-Iran MoU as the basis for conflict resolution. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, warned against linking Israel’s withdrawal to the group’s disarmament, stating this crosses “all red lines.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to reassure the public, especially those in northern Israel vulnerable to Hezbollah attacks, that Israel would maintain its buffer zone until Hezbollah disarms. However, the opposition leader, Yair Lapid, criticized the agreement for potentially allowing Iran to continue funding Hezbollah. Former Deputy Prime Minister Avigdor Lieberman echoed longstanding criticisms, suggesting the policy manages rather than resolves the Hezbollah threat. Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff and potential challenger to Netanyahu, expressed regret over not capitalizing on military achievements.

Local leaders in northern Israel, such as David Azoulay and Eyal Shmueli, responded with cautious optimism and skepticism, respectively, emphasizing the need for careful management of any withdrawal. Ahron Bregman, a King’s College London expert, predicted the agreement would fail, likening it to the unsuccessful UN Resolution 1701, citing Hezbollah and Iran’s lack of interest in disarmament or dismantling.

The agreement’s reception in Israel reflects a mix of hope for reduced conflict and skepticism over its feasibility, given the historical context and the complex geopolitical dynamics involved.