Korea Must Prepare for Post-War Risks After Iran Conflict

The United States and Iran agreed on Monday to sign a memorandum of understanding ending the war that began with U.S. airstrikes on Feb. 28. The agreement comes 106 days after the conflict erupted. For Korea, which has suffered from disruptions to global supply chains, the news is welcome.

Yet the end of the war will not return the world to its prewar state. Economic risks will remain, while shifts in geopolitical power relations will require countries to adapt to a changing international order.

First, Korea should draw lessons from the severe impact caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict exposed the vulnerability of supply chains that depend heavily on specific sea lanes and energy sources.

Even if maritime traffic returns to normal, efforts to diversify energy imports and strengthen economic security must continue. Korea should also actively participate in international discussions on future arrangements to maintain safe navigation through the strait and, where necessary, contribute to strengthen its influence.

Policymakers must also remain vigilant in managing the economy. The end of the war is unlikely to bring an immediate end to Korea's "three highs" — high exchange rates, high inflation and high interest rates.

Damaged oil facilities in the Middle East will take time to recover, while logistics networks may not normalize for months. Inflationary pressures and currency volatility are therefore likely to persist.

Central banks around the world, including the Bank of Korea, have already signaled the possibility of further rate increases. Higher borrowing costs could place additional burdens on households and businesses while weakening consumption and deepening inequality.

The postwar period may also create new opportunities. Iranian media have reported that Tehran presented Washington with a $300 billion reconstruction plan. If reconstruction proceeds, a substantial infrastructure market could emerge across the Middle East.

The government and private sector should work together to secure an early foothold in those projects. Korean companies possess extensive experience in construction, engineering and industrial development and could benefit from new demand.

The conflict is also expected to reshape international politics. Divisions within the trans-Atlantic alliance became more visible during the war, while China appears poised to expand its influence in the Middle East amid shifting regional dynamics.

The Trump administration may also seek greater security and economic contributions from allies, arguing that they should bear more responsibility for maintaining stability.