Labor's defeat in Secret Harbour by-election signals voter frustration with cost of living and housing

After a decade of dominance in Western Australia, Labor's dramatic defeat in its heartland seat of Secret Harbour has prompted plenty of self-reflection.

The loss to One Nation wasn't a surprise.

The ABC understands in the weeks before veteran minister Paul Papalia resigned from his safe seat, internal party polling showed One Nation was on track to win the by-election.

Voters were frustrated with politicians, the cost of living, housing pressures and their future prospects.

Labor paid the price at the ballot box, shedding 23 per cent of its primary vote to suffer a huge 19 per cent swing.

"When you have underlying issues that the government find difficult to resolve, you can campaign all you like but you can't necessarily make housing cheaper, you can't necessarily make the cost of living more affordable overnight," Notre Dame University politics professor Martin Drum said.

A coastal, outer-suburban electorate which has changed name and shape over the years, Secret Harbour had been held by Labor since at least 1989.

Its population includes many young, working families. Residents are more likely to have vocational qualifications than a university degree and it's less multicultural than the rest of the state.

It recorded the eighth-highest vote for One Nation at the last state election.

Some Labor figures dubbed the Secret Harbour by-election "the worst seat to contest at the worst time".

It was a test of what a Labor-One Nation contest looks like and gives another data point for the major parties ahead of statewide polls in Victoria and New South Wales.

The One Nation alternative

Voters in Secret Harbour wanted change. What kind of change wasn't always clear.

One theory was that people have come to believe the government can fix their problems. It's created a reflexive response to pain.

The common sentiment amongst voters the ABC spoke to this week was that they were "sending a message to government".

Gabriel Vandermerwe, who put One Nation second after the Australian Christians, said he was "happy with the result".

"People want change, they're not happy with the current situation," he said.

Hank Vandenbelt, who is married to an Australian citizen but couldn't vote himself, said he was worried about what the change meant for him personally.

"I'm a little bit concerned about the rise of One Nation … I'm an immigrant myself, I'm not even a citizen but there's some mood against immigrants," he said.

Close friends David Mackney and Leslie Simmons are on opposite ends of the political spectrum but were able to find some common ground.

"Policies are really non-existent I think … or they're irrelevant [from] One Nation so we'll wait and see," Mr Simmons said.

Mr Mackney, traditionally a Liberal voter, put One Nation second but agreed there was "little substance on policy" from the minor party.

"I knew the Liberals wouldn't be able to get in because of the way they are at the moment … it's a protest to let people know that central government needs to sort itself out."

Several women the ABC spoke to, who didn't want to be photographed, said they were pleased by the "expected" One Nation win.

One Nation presents as a sympathetic ear and a chance to try something different.

Its popularity has baffled both major parties, in part because of how quickly it's come about.

These results from three successive DemosAU polls show how Western Australians intend to vote at a federal level.

With federal issues influencing both One Nation's support and the by-election in particular, it shows the trend Labor is up against.

Labor's campaign

The red campaign, which Labor says cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, was an experiment in fighting that wave, with the usual caveats that come from extrapolating too much from a by-election result.

The party maintains that despite some missteps and miscalculations, its campaign was technically strong.

That includes 19,000 doors knocked on, 8,000 voters spoken to and more than 210,000 pieces of mail sent into the electorate.

And yet it wasn't enough.

It's understood a "frank and fearless" review led by three experienced figures will soon begin to unpack what went wrong.

Two senior Labor figures said they had been surprised by the impact of their candidate living 60 kilometres from Secret Harbour and being silenced at two consecutive press conferences.

Georgia Tree had grown up in the area and lived there for a long time, but had moved to the city for work. And, they pointed out, she spoke at more press conferences than her opponents.

One possibility is that she was perceived as disconnected and unable to speak up. It's the opposite of what One Nation seeks to appeal to.

Connecting with voters

One immediate lesson which both sides appear to have taken from the result is that people’s sense of disconnection from their representatives should be countered by politicians spending more time with voters.

Social media, which was once thought to provide a more direct connection to constituents, has instead become "contaminated", Deputy Premier Rita Saffioti said on Thursday.

Saffioti suggested that was difficult to achieve in the frenetic pace of a by-election but would be more feasible in the lead up to a state election.

It's a view shared by another outer-suburban MP, Liberal Adam Hort.

He holds the seat of Kalamunda, which takes in the Perth hills, on just 82 votes. On paper, it would be prime One Nation territory.

"One of the clearest lessons from the recent by-election is that people expect their local member to be part of their community, to listen and to work hard for them," he told the ABC.

"That means being out there every week — doorknocking, meeting community groups, taking my mobile electorate office across the hills, visiting schools and listening to local residents."

Challenging One Nation

Labor moved swiftly to show it is listening to voter concerns, with a housing announcement on Monday promising to boost the supply of rentals in nearby Mandurah.

Political observers sense voters have outsized expectations of their governments' ability to solve the often complex pressures they're facing.

But Labor is best placed to relieve that pressure, if it can work out how. It still holds 45 of 59 lower house seats and controls a government with plenty of money to direct in the right ways.

The Liberals have the easier job of pointing out the government's flaws from opposition, but have little room for error with just six lower house seats.

"While we are now the opposition in residence, One Nation is the opposition in waiting," one senior Liberal said.

The WA branches of the major parties have three years until the next state election to work out how to challenge One Nation, if the orange wave lasts that long.

If the solution is deep, meaningful engagement with their community though, the time to act is now.