Macron's Defense Legacy Faces Budget Limits and Far-Right Threat

ANKARA, Turkey — Emmanuel Macron left his last NATO summit without a bang — fitting for a president for whom fiscal constraints and the prospect of a far-right successor threaten his defense legacy.

The French president — who arrived late, departed early and barely spoke to the press — has often kept a low profile at alliance summits. Yet in his nearly a decade as president, he cemented France as a top power in NATO, deploying French forces to the border with Russia and pressing the case to rely less on the U.S. and for Europe to be more independent.

That’s now the clear momentum. “The summit made it clear that Europeans are investing more and more and taking more and more action to defend themselves. I, for one, have been advocating this for nine years,” Macron told reporters as the summit wrapped up.

The French president’s defense legacy — defined by a pivot to Europe — is marked by a boost in defense spending and the very early stages of including European countries in France’s nuclear deterrent. But as his tenure ends, two forces of budget limits and the far-right are casting a shadow.

While centrist candidates looking to succeed Macron are likely to continue his direction, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who is leading in the polls, has made clear that France will significantly reduce its role in NATO and the EU if she wins.

“The shift toward Europe has taken place, and the next president will have to decide whether to continue or reject this now very clear course of action, which the administration has embraced,” said Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Paris-based IFRI security studies center. “This is the issue that most concerns our European allies.”

Le Pen’s shadow

Less than one year before his term ends, the French president is starting a series of swan songs.

His last NATO summit this week will be followed on July 13 by his final pre-Bastille Day speech to the armed forces. He will host a Coalition of the Willing meeting on the same day to gather Ukraine allies before the traditional July 14 military parade in Paris (also his last).

Since 2022, after initially calling NATO “brain dead,” the president has been the face of France’s growing dedication to the alliance — a commitment that could come to an end if Le Pen is elected president.

After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, France boosted its presence on the eastern flank, leading NATO forces in Romania and in Ankara promising to send troops to Finland. That came as France was forced to retreat from its former colonies in Africa's Sahel region.

Paris is also playing a key role in replacing the military equipment that the U.S. is withdrawing from NATO, including offering an aircraft carrier. “France alone met 80 percent of the maritime needs created by the U.S. repositioning,” Macron said Wednesday.

A Le Pen presidency would undo much of Macron's work. She said this week that she plans to be the National Rally candidate next year, despite being convicted of embezzlement.

In May, the far-right leader said she would pull France out of NATO's integrated command during her first presidential term — copying General Charles de Gaulle's 1966 move. She also said NATO should “reorient itself” to combating radical Islamism and made no pledges about French troops on the eastern flank.

More money — but not enough

Whoever becomes president next year will also have to grapple with France’s deteriorating public finances.

France plans to spend just over 2.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2030, far off the trajectory needed to reach NATO's 2035 target of 3.5 percent. And with a public debt of over 115 percent of GDP, finding the extra cash will be very difficult.

While Paris scrambles for money, Germany is racing ahead. France’s military expenditure will have doubled to €63.3 billion by 2027, but Germany is expected to reach €109.7 billion next year. France's top general, Fabien Mandon, warned lawmakers that there’s a real risk Berlin may overtake Paris as the continent's top military power.

Tight finances have already undermined Macron's ambitions.

He announced in March that France would deploy more nuclear warheads, but the country has not expanded its navy or its air fleet in the last decade due to a lack of funds.

"France hasn’t resolved the issue of acquiring more mass," said Martin Quencez, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. He said the risk of a miniature "bonsai army that does everything at a very small level" is "fair criticism."

On the war economy, Quencez added, "there’s an effort that shouldn’t be underestimated, but the rhetoric wasn’t met by real investment."

For Macron, however, this NATO summit was a confirmation of what he's been advocating for nearly a decade: "A Europe that invests and defends its sovereignty and strategic autonomy within NATO: we're there now," he posted on social media.