Morgan Stanley Raises China Humanoid Robot Shipment Forecast to 50,000 Units

Morgan Stanley has again raised its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments this year, lifting its estimate to 50,000 units from 28,000 as commercial validation, policy support and supply-chain momentum accelerate adoption.

The investment bank had already doubled its projection to 28,000 units in January. In a report published on Tuesday, it said the latest upgrade reflected a growing number of Chinese companies, including electric-vehicle maker Xpeng, announcing plans for mass production by the end of the year.

The bank raised its forecast for annual humanoid robot shipments in China in 2030 to 446,000 units from 262,000 previously.

Full-sized humanoids were expected to become the dominant segment of the market, with their share rising from 30 per cent this year to 50 per cent in 2027, and 70 per cent in 2028, according to the report.

The bank attributed China’s progress to intensifying competition among domestic humanoid robot developers and strong national policy support. Chinese companies, it said, were leveraging large-scale deployments to generate the data needed to improve robot performance and accelerate commercialisation.

Beijing recently launched a nationwide training programme aimed at expanding robots’ ability to handle real-world tasks, shifting the focus from staged demonstrations to practical deployment in factories, warehouses and hospitals.