NFL Free Agency and Trade Analysis: Evaluating Recent Player Signings

Though not nearly on the same level as the Crosby trade, this is somewhat uncharacteristic for Baltimore, too. Yes, the Ravens have signed veteran edge rushers before, but it's a bit of a surprise to see them do it at the top of the free agent market at this position. Perhaps new head coach Jesse Minter felt it was important to have one real-deal pass rusher for his defense.

Is Hendrickson worth what the Ravens paid? It's really the $60 million fully guaranteed that gives me pause. At $28 million per year, Hendrickson actually isn't at the top of the market in terms of APY, considering Parsons signed a $46.5 million-per-year deal in 2025 (nor would we expect him to be, given that he is 31 years old and coming off an injury-shortened season). But via the guarantees, the Ravens are signing up for his age-31 and age-32 seasons, and it wouldn't be that shocking if that looks unideal 12 months from now.

There is also some draft pick cost here, even though this isn't a trade. According to OverTheCap's projections, this contract would wipe out the third-round compensatory pick the Ravens were slated to receive for losing Tyler Linderbaum. At the moment, that means they would be in line to receive a seventh-round pick instead (though this could change when more of their free agents sign elsewhere or when/if they sign more free agents). That pales in comparison to the draft capital cost of the Crosby deal, but it is something and is worth factoring in.

So there is absolutely risk here, given the late stage of Hendrickson's career and the guaranteed money. But after missing out on the early part of free agency, the next-best free agent pass rusher at this stage is probably Jadeveon Clowney. The Ravens certainly did have to add the position; the combination of Robinson and Green at the top of the depth chart was awfully weak. The Ravens have Lamar Jackson in his prime, they want a title, and they're trying to maximize their chances. Adding Crosby would have helped those chances in 2026 but hurt them in future seasons when they will still have Jackson. Hendrickson accomplishes the former without the same level of risk to the latter.

One thing I am confident in: The Ravens are better off today than they were yesterday. -- Walder

Giants signing LB Tremaine Edmunds

Terms: Three years, $36 million

Grade: C

A few days ago, the Bears released Edmunds rather than paying him the $15 million he would have made in 2026. Instead, he's getting a new multiyear contract from the Giants -- at a per-year rate not all that much lower.

I'll add a caveat to this by saying linebackers are hard to quantify, but Edmunds' tackle rate against the run was only in the 32nd percentile among off-ball linebackers last season, while his run stop win rate was in the 34th percentile. He did have four interceptions last season, but he also allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap (higher than average).

Looking at free agency rankings, opinions are split on Edmunds. But considering the top linebacker, Devin Lloyd, is getting $15 million per year and Devin Bush -- who is signing with the Bears -- is getting only $10 million per year, the $12 million Edmunds is receiving seems a little rich. -- Walder

Raiders signing LB Quay Walker

Terms: Three years, $40.5 million

Grade: C+

Las Vegas' big spending Monday included deals to acquire not one, but two linebackers -- Nakobe Dean and Walker. The latter was slightly better regarded and slightly more expensive.

The numbers don't necessarily agree, though. Over the past two seasons, Walker recorded a run stop win rate that ranked in the 31st percentile for off-ball linebackers. His 19.1% tackle rate was slightly above average, however. Those two numbers can work in tandem because Walker had only a 6.9% missed tackle rate in that span, much better than the 11.8% average, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Walker has been effective as a blitzer, with an 81st percentile pass rush win rate among off-ball linebackers over the past two seasons. Coverage numbers for linebackers are noisy, but Walker's 1.0 yards allowed per coverage snap is slightly higher than average and he has allowed positive EPA in every season in his career, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Ultimately, though, this is real money for a linebacker who has played a lot but been just OK through his rookie contract -- as evidenced by the Packers turning down his fifth-year option a year ago. If I were the Raiders, I probably would have thought about spending this money elsewhere. -- Walder

Browns signing OL Elgton Jenkins

Terms: Two years, up to $24 million

Grade: A

The Browns entered this offseason needing starters at all five offensive line positions. So it makes sense they ended up with the ultimate position-less offensive lineman in Jenkins, who has significant experience at center, guard and tackle.

Jenkins had been in line to make $20 million from the Packers in 2026, per OverTheCap.com, so Green Bay cut him. That worked out to the benefit of the Browns, who are scooping him up.

Jenkins played last season at center and had middling results, ranking in the 47th and 57th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively, before a fractured ankle on Nov. 10 ended his season. It was roughly a similar story for him -- in terms of win rates -- at guard the previous year.

But Jenkins has had seasons when he has ascended to a higher level of play. In 2023, his pass block win rate at guard reached the 89th percentile. In 2022, it was in the 73rd percentile, while his run block win rate reached the 87th percentile in a season in which he split time between guard and tackle and reached the Pro Bowl. And in 2021, Jenkins recorded strong numbers at tackle (84th and 88th percentiles in PBWR and RBWR).

If Jenkins, 30, can get back to his level of play from a few years ago, he will be a steal for Cleveland. At this point it's unclear where Jenkins will play, and it's possible the Browns might not even know yet. He's probably best at guard, but the Browns might need him at center because all the top free agent centers have already agreed to deals.

We don't know the exact terms, but we'll work under the assumption that the base value is a couple of million per year under the maximum $12 million per year. If Jenkins ends up an average guard or center, he will be worth it and a much better deal than his new teammate Zion Johnson (at $16.5 million per year). But Jenkins has upside for more, and that's what makes this such a strong contract for Cleveland. -- Walder

Patriots signing G Alijah Vera-Tucker

Terms: Three years, $42 million

Grade: C

The Patriots had a need on their offensive line and opted to sign a rival's departing free agent to fill it. Vera-Tucker is heading from the Jets to the Patriots after a triceps tear in practice caused him to miss his final season in New York. The Patriots gain a guard with real upside but also one with a strong injury risk.

Vera-Tucker has widely been considered a very good guard when he's on the field. However, his metrics have never lived up to that reputation. From 2021 to 2024, Vera-Tucker has ranked in the 36th percentile in pass block win rate and only the 3rd percentile in run block win rate. That is not great.

And he certainly carries risk, given his injury history. He has played only 43 out of a possible 85 games in his five-year career, with three major injuries -- a torn Achilles and tearing his triceps in both arms.

At $14 million per year, Vera-Tucker comes in a couple of million per year cheaper than Zion Johnson and David Edwards, and a couple of million more expensive per year than Isaac Seumalo.

Vera-Tucker has played both left and right guard with the Jets, though he most recently played on the right side. Because Mike Onwenu played exclusively at right guard last season, my guess would be that Vera-Tucker will play left guard in New England. But he also has experience playing tackle, and that flexibility could be particularly useful if New England decides it wants to move Will Campbell from left tackle at some point. -- Walder

Eagles signing CB Riq Woolen

Terms: One year, up to $15 million

Grade: A

The Eagles spent much of last season trying to find a solution at their second outside corner spot. They've found their answer for 2026.

With the market seemingly cooler on Woolen than expected (at least, that's what I'm assuming based on this contract), the Eagles were there to strike with a one-year deal.

Woolen is fascinating because he is not widely considered to be among the game's top cornerbacks, but his numbers are right there with the best. Over the past four seasons, among outside corners with at least 500 coverage snaps, do you know who allowed the fewest yards per coverage snap? Woolen, at 0.7, one spot ahead of new teammate Quinyon Mitchell and two spots ahead of 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II.

And yet Woolen has been benched multiple times and shared work with Josh Jobe at times last season. Woolen has moments where it goes wrong -- such as in Week 1, when he was beaten badly by Ricky Pearsall for a 45-yard gain on the 49ers' final drive before allowing the game-winning touchdown, or when he committed an almost-cataclysmic taunting penalty in the NFC Championship Game ahead of what would have been a fourth-and-12. To that last point, Woolen's penalty rate is high (0.8% over his career, which ranks in the 80th percentile) but not disqualifying.

Ultimately, it's hard to argue against Woolen's results. Over a single season, there can be reasons a corner puts up a strong yards per coverage snap result even without playing well. For example, if they play opposite an awful corner on the other side, if their team has a good pass rush or, as with Seattle last season, the unit is incredible overall. But that has certainly not been true for Woolen for his entire time in Seattle.

The Eagles will have a formidable set of corners with Mitchell and Woolen outside and Cooper DeJean in the slot. Good luck, opposing receivers.

This deal is great for the Eagles because it fills a key need, but also because of the price. Woolen was widely viewed as being among the best outside corners in the class alongside players such as Jaylen Watson (who is getting a three-year deal at $17 million per year) and Alontae Taylor (three years at $60 million).

We don't know the final terms here, but I'm working under the assumption that this contract's base value is a few million short of the $15 million maximum value. And no matter what the base value is, the fact that it's a one-year contract minimizes any risk. But Woolen could make a huge impact for the Eagles in 2026. -- Walder

Steelers trade for WR Pittman

Steelers receive: WR Michael Pittman Jr., 2026 seventh-round pick

Colts receive: 2026 sixth-round pick

Steelers grade: C

Colts grade: B

For the second straight offseason, the Steelers added a wide receiver via trade. Last year, it was DK Metcalf. This time, it's Pittman in a late-round draft pick swap with the Colts.

The Steelers are giving Pittman a new three-year, $59 million contract, per NFL Network. Because the trade compensation is so small, we can evaluate this as basically being a free agent deal at that price.

Pittman, 28, fits with the Steelers because he runs short routes, averaging only 8.1 air yards per target. And quarterback Aaron Rodgers -- who is a free agent but seems likely to be back in Pittsburgh again -- does pretty much one thing in the late stage of his career: throw short. Seventy-six percent of Rodgers' pass attempts went under 10 air yards last season, the highest rate in the league.

Pittman recorded his best season in 2023, grabbing 109 receptions for 1,152 receiving yards and 2.2 yards per route run. But he hasn't been able to match that since, with his yards per route run dropping to 1.8 in 2024 and 1.6 in 2025 (just 1.2 vs. man coverage). He totaled 784 receiving yards last season on 80 receptions.

His player-tracking based metrics in ESPN's receiver scores tell a similar story. This was most noticeable in his open score, which hit a career-high 67 in 2023 but fell to 53 in 2024 and 49 in 2025.

My biggest issue with this move is wondering why the Steelers didn't go after Wan'Dale Robinson instead. Robinson is three years younger and a better player at this point. Robinson cost $19.5 million per year -- almost exactly the same amount that Pittman does after his new contract. -- Walder

Falcons to sign QB Tua Tagovailoa

Terms: One year, veteran minimum

Grade: B+

Because of the offset in Tagovailoa's contract, there is no incentive for either him or his new team to go above the veteran minimum. Therefore, the Falcons will land him very cheaply.

I can't say I'm much of a believer in Tagovailoa at this point, but that's almost beside the point given the price and how much sense he makes for Atlanta's situation. With Michael Penix Jr. rehabbing from the torn ACL he suffered last November, the Falcons needed someone who could, at minimum, run the offense through the offseason and back up Penix in-season. At most, the new QB would likely start a few early-season games. And, ideally, not cost much.

Tagovailoa fits the bill as a quarterback who has had success before, even if it was in a specific system with talented receivers around him. The former Dolphins quarterback is coming off a rough season in which he recorded a 37.5 QBR (third worst among qualifiers), a 3.5% interception rate (worst), a 1.7% fumble rate (third worst) and 5.9 yards per dropback (seventh worst). His stock has plummeted far enough that the Dolphins are cutting him even with $54 million of the $55 million in 2026 cash owed to him being guaranteed.

Even with all of that, Tagovailoa is a logical choice for Atlanta, and the Falcons are a logical choice for him. He's only 28 and two years ago ranked 10th in QBR. If he can find some of his former form again in Kevin Stefanski's offense, that will be good for Tagovailoa and the Falcons. If it goes really well, perhaps there's a path for him to be an NFL starter again. But at the very least, he should get practice time with a decent shot at seeing the field at some point.

Plus, he's also a lefty like Penix, which should make the transition between the two quarterbacks easier on the offense. -- Walder

Patriots signing WR Romeo Doubs

Terms: Four years, $68 million

Grade: B+