Northampton Must Be Wary of Unpredictable Finals and a Resurgent Exeter

Prem finals do not always unfold as anticipated. Six of the last seven editions have been settled by six points or fewer and favourites are not guaranteed to have it their own way.

Remember Freddie Burns’ late drop-goal to edge Leicester past Saracens in 2022? Or Harlequins coming from behind against Exeter the previous year? In Twickenham’s summer heat – it’s uncanny how often the weather plays ball – the best of plans can easily go awol.

In 2024 Bath were undone after Beno Obano’s first-half red card and 12 months ago Michael Cheika’s Leicester came within a couple of points of causing a big upset. The common denominator? Finals can be unpredictable occasions and, under pressure, what looked a dead cert last week becomes as relevant as last year’s lottery numbers.

Which is why Northampton, this season’s free-wheeling frontrunners, should be wary of humming too many celebratory Olivia Dean tunes in advance. Twice they have faced Exeter in the league and twice there have been Ozempic-slim margins between the teams. On the opening league weekend the Chiefs fought back from 33-7 to draw 33-33 and in April it required a late try from Fin Smith to sneak Saints home 35-28.

So no matter that Exeter finished third in the table, a position from which no side has previously won the title. Of more relevance is that the Chiefs have beaten Leicester, Saracens and Bath in recent weeks and are in no mood to go out with an unambitious whimper. As their South African hooker Joseph Dweba posted this week on social media: “Be ready to fail because only then are you ready to succeed.”

Nor should the news that Manny Feyi-Waboso is fit to start for Exeter be greeted with non-committal shrugs in the East Midlands. Facial surgery just over two weeks ago had appeared to have ruled the England wing out of contention but suddenly he is back out there. “He’s a bit of a freak,” said his captain Dafydd Jenkins. “It’s quite annoying how easy it looks for him. The development I’ve seen in him since he’s been here has been freakish. He’s a class act and a great person. The boys love playing with him because he is so good. Him playing is huge.”

Jenkins, whose leadership example has been a further factor in the Chiefs’ resurrection from last season’s lowly ninth position, has also been praising the influence of another possible match-winner, their Italian international Andrea Zambonin. At Northampton back in September both lock forwards kicked off their campaigns on the bench – “People didn’t realise how good he was,” reveals Jenkins – before emerging to play crucial roles in their side’s dramatic second-half turnaround. The pair have since formed a close partnership, supported by the hard-edged back-row of Tom Hooper, Greg Fisilau and the fit-again Ethan oots. Those expecting Exeter’s pack to collapse tamely in front of an 82,000 sell-out crowd have not been doing their homework.

Add in the big game experience of Len Ikitau and Henry Slade, plus Harvey Skinner’s fine form, and Exeter aren’t nearly as wet behind the ears as some have been suggesting. “We shouldn’t be getting on the bus if everyone doesn’t believe we can do it,” stressed Jenkins. “Sladey has been pushing that message a lot this week. Even when we were down at half-time in Bath there was a calmness in the group. That belief has been built up over the season which is really positive to see.”

It also does no harm that the Chiefs had a dry run at Twickenham only last month. Admittedly they lost to Harlequins but it taught their younger players the vital importance of playing the game rather than the occasion. There is also the distant case study of Exeter’s first Prem final in 2016 when players were taking pictures of the huge crowds on their phones and the team bus collided with a taxi outside the ground. By the time everybody had settled down it was half-time, Saracens were ahead 23-6 and the game was, in effect, done and dusted.

A decade on much will again hinge on a fast start – Northampton have a tendency to rack up a lot of early points – and the degree to which Exeter’s forwards can deny Saints quick ball. The Chiefs will also need to be aware of the little chip kicks into space that helped to undo Leicester but, tactically, the rival coaching teams know each other inside out.

Northampton’s director of rugby, Phil Dowson, is an admirer of his counterpart, Rob Baxter, and used to live with the Exeter coach Dave Walder during their days playing together at Newcastle. “I’m a godparent to his youngest child and we’re very good mates,” confirmed Dowson. “He used to take me for Sunday lunch at his mum and dad’s house … and I’m godfather to his brother’s youngest kid as well.” Whoever wins this particular duel it should be another stirring advert for the English domestic game.