Nvidia Earnings: Traders Brace for Potential Volatility
Quick Look
- Nvidia's upcoming earnings report faces high expectations, with options pricing suggesting traders anticipate a significant stock move.
- However, historical data shows implied volatility has often overestimated actual post-earnings swings, and shares have recently declined after reports.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Options pricing has historically overestimated Nvidia's post-earnings stock swings. Despite recent strong performance, shares have declined after the last three reports. Current implied volatility is lower than average, but expectations remain high.
It's been a while since Nvidia earnings shocked the world, or even just traders.
Options pricing has overestimated the size of Nvidia's post-report swing six of the past seven quarters, and 14 of the past 20, according to Cboe LiveVol data. Implied volatility going into earnings averages 6.7%, compared to the average actual response of 4.6%.
Perhaps traders are getting wise this time around: implied volatility in the world's biggest company touched the highest since March on Friday and has come down while the stock slipped this week, reducing current expectations down to a 5.9% move.
It's arguably a higher-pressure earnings for Jensen Huang's AI behemoth following a 34% run off the stock's March lows and an additional trillion dollars of market cap. Adding to the drama is recent history, as shares slid after the past three reports, including a 5.5% dive in February.
"They would have to just blow the doors completely off, like 50% guidance beat, for the stock to surge," Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy, said in a phone call. "Given the history of phenomenal metrics and a stock that pops right away and then sells off, I want to sell some premium and lean a little short."
Regardless of direction, just getting past Nvidia earnings alone may help clear the way for the next big market move. VIX futures prices are elevated through Thursday likely due to Nvidia earnings, notes SpotGamma's Brent Kochuba.
"We continue to think the market correction post OPEX makes sense," Kochuba wrote to clients Tuesday, "and that the main event is NVDA earnings tomorrow night."
Open Questions
- Will Nvidia's guidance beat expectations by a significant margin?
- Will the stock surge immediately after the report, or sell off as it has in the past?
- How will Nvidia's earnings impact the broader market sentiment?
