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BackOil Prices Climb Amid Ceasefire Hopes and OPEC Outlook
Oil Prices Climb Amid Ceasefire Hopes and OPEC Outlook
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CNBC6/19/2026Business3 min read

Oil Prices Climb Amid Ceasefire Hopes and OPEC Outlook

Quick Look

  • Oil prices rose Friday, with Brent crude futures at $80.09 and WTI at $76.85, after news of a potential Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
  • U.S.-Iran talks were called off, adding uncertainty.
  • OPEC expects demand not to peak soon, rejecting IEA supply glut forecasts.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Oil prices resumed their climb after news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, while U.S.-Iran talks were abruptly called off, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in peace settlement efforts.

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Oil prices resumed their climb after briefly turning lower Friday on news that Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, according to a U.S. official.

The report comes shortly after follow-up talks between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland were abruptly called off, underscoring lingering uncertainty over efforts to turn an interim agreement into a lasting peace settlement.

International benchmark Brent crude futures for August were last seen 0.30% higher at $80.09 per barrel after earlier dropping 1%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for July traded 0.33% higher at $76.85 after being down 0.8% earlier in the day. Both contracts are on track for a weekly loss of more than 8%.

Switzerland's foreign ministry said U.S.-Iran talks scheduled to take place at Bürgenstock on Friday would not proceed as planned.

The White House also said that Vice President JD Vance was no longer traveling to Switzerland, citing unresolved logistical issues surrounding the negotiations.

Vance on Thursday said tankers with more than 12 million barrels crossed the strait overnight.

"The Iranians, for the second night in a row, did not shoot at any ships in the Strait of Hormuz," Vance told reporters. "So far, they are honoring their end of the commitment."

Separately, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais told CNBC in an exclusive interview that the organization does not expect oil demand to peak in the foreseeable future. He also rejected forecasts from the International Energy Agency that point to a future supply glut.

"[We focus] on fundamentals and not putting many ifs and buts in our forecasts, but rather focusing on actual numbers," he said.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said Friday that it appears as though the conditional reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, along with the lifting of force majeure declarations by Kuwait and the end of the U.S. naval blockade, has convinced investors that the disruption which had pushed prices above $120 "is well and truly over."

He added: "The 60-day truce is an unambiguously welcome step in the right direction. However, even if the agreement holds, the recent sell-off may prove unsustainable in the short term."

Oil prices are likely to trade between $75 and $82 a barrel in the near term, with Brent roughly down 36% from its peak during the conflict, Tiago Lacerda, a market analyst at Axi, told CNBC in an email.

"Attention shifts quickly to whether the physical reopening actually follows major shipping lines have yet to resume transits and insurance rates remain elevated, suggesting the market is cautious about the speed of normalization," Lacerda said.

— CNBC's Spencer Kimball contributed to the report.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • Oil prices to trade between $75-$82 in the near term.

    Likely

Open Questions

  • Will the ceasefire hold?
  • Will shipping lines resume transits?
  • Will insurance rates normalize?

Related Topics

This article was originally published by CNBC.

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