Pauline Hanson's cautious approach to polling offers a lesson for political parties

When it comes to reading political polling, it is worth taking a leaf out of Pauline Hanson's book.

The One Nation leader, whose popularity has soared in the past 12 months, would be the first to say she doesn't put too much stock in the numbers.

That's not to suggest the results aren't to be taken seriously, only that a poll can only reveal so much.

Ask Hanson, as this column did late last year, what she made of the polls signalling a One Nation resurgence, and the response was one of sober clarity.

Polling is a useful tool for detecting trends and providing a snapshot of sentiment in a moment of time.

Few, including Hanson, count them as predictors of results — particularly elections that remain years away.

Even as One Nation has continued to hoover up a sizeable chunk of Australians' first preference vote, Hanson has generally been cautious in her direct commentary not to count her chickens before they've hatched.

Repeatedly asked about a new Australian Financial Review poll conducted by Redbridge Group/Accent Research that showed One Nation surpassing Labor's national primary vote, Hanson again downplayed its significance during a media blitz on Monday.

"There's a movement," she told Melbourne radio station 3AW.

"There's an unrest from [the] general public right across the whole country, that people have had enough of the major political parties and they desperately want change."

However, she went on to add, "It is only a poll".

"The real poll is on election day," Hanson said.

Counting a few chickens

Despite consistently espousing this rather measured view on polling, signs are emerging that Hanson has perhaps begun a rough headcount of the unhatched eggs.

In that same interview, Hanson was happy to lean into reporting she was considering a lower house tilt — widely viewed as a necessary step for anyone with prime ministerial aspirations.

"I am considering a lower house seat by all means, but nothing is set in concrete, and I haven't made a final decision on it," she said.

Then came the kicker.

"You can be prime minister from the Senate," Hanson continued, emphasising that Australia's constitution does not strictly prohibit that eventuality.

Now, this could be seen as Hanson getting ahead of herself — and just ask Peter Dutton how dangerous it can be if the electorate thinks you're already picking out curtains for The Lodge.

But it might also be an attempt to lay the foundation for her sticking to the (electorally) safer option of the Senate without totally dashing the hopes of her diehard supporters, for whom Hanson is their pick to be PM.

Either way, openly canvassing the possibility of assuming the nation's top job before a single ballot has been cast in the 2028 election is entirely inferred from current polling results.

Zooming out to look at the trends that are emerging from said polls and there are two broad cohorts of One Nation voters emerging, each posing a different threat to Labor and the Coalition.

In the first instance, some conservatives vehemently dislike Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers and want Labor gone.

Those voters have witnessed the Liberals and Nationals implode at each attempt to defeat Albanese, and many now feel One Nation has a better chance of success.

This shift in allegiance is driving the Liberals' lurch to the right, seen through policies like dumping a commitment to net zero emissions and naming "mass migration" as the biggest threat to Australia's way of life.

So far, those moves have barely stemmed the losses, let alone won supporters back.

That's in part because, as this column noted, while Opposition Leader Angus Taylor dabbles in culture-war concerns, One Nation is encroaching further into the traditional Liberal territory of economics.

Taylor's latest strategy on that front has been to back the return of former PM Tony Abbott to the public political arena.

In the two days since he was elected, unopposed, as the Liberal Party's new federal president (an unpaid, chairman-of-the-board-style role), Abbott has wasted no time in making his pitch to win back the voters he once commanded significant influence over.

It's too early to know if the three-word slogans will be as effective this time around.

Even if successful, reclaiming that base would only be the first step for a Coalition seeking to return to government.

A threat to Labor

The second cohort of One Nation supporters is the group moving in more recent polls — younger, working Australians who are struggling to make ends meet.

After a pandemic, an inflation crisis, and now another war, which is sparking a cycle of interest rate hikes and higher prices, they strongly feel the economy is not working for them.

They don't necessarily subscribe to the Hanson worldview, but they're more than prepared to back her as a way of kicking the government.

It's these Australians who significantly helped Labor into office in 2022 and then build on their result in 2025, and who will ultimately decide if the party can retain any sort of majority in 2028.

The Coalition will also be competing for these voters, but with fewer fronts to fight on Labor has the advantage.

This far out from the next federal election and Labor is not panicking.

But that doesn't mean the party isn't taking the published polls seriously.

The next federal election, just like last year's, will have two-party preferred contests between Labor and One Nation.

How many and where remain uncertain, though demographically it's likely to be in regional or outer-suburban areas that are less diverse and have a strong working-class background.

Labor rejects budget blame narrative

Internally, Labor is not of the view that the post-budget polls showing a rise in One Nation's support at the government's expense is entirely due to the unpopularity of its tax changes.

A few days before Chalmers stepped up to the despatch box to hand down his fifth budget, One Nation had just secured a historic electoral victory.

Winning the Farrer by-election was in many ways the pinnacle of Hanson's federal political life — finally, a lower house seat for One Nation won directly from voters.

With wall-to-wall coverage of the sea of orange caps and Australian flags waving in the crowd as Hanson took the stage to acknowledge the win, there's no surprise that One Nation is enjoying somewhat of a honeymoon period.

But as one Labor stalwart who has quite literally seen all that before told this column recently, One Nation's "capacity to self-destruct is its history".

Just as former Queensland premier Peter Beattie didn't leave it to chance when he wiped out One Nation after its shock result in the 1998 state election, so too will Labor federally be putting in the work to win back disaffected voters.

Chalmers effectively summarised Labor's fight back when asked about the Redbridge poll showing One Nation had overtaken the party on primary votes.

He derided his conservative opponents as a "three-ring circus" (all about the spectacle) who "want to benefit from people's legitimate concerns without doing anything about them".

A test in Victoria

The next proper electoral test for the Labor political apparatus is the Victorian state election in Victoria.

After more than a decade in office, the debt-riddled government led by Premier Jacinta Allan was already looking tired.

Not an insurmountable challenge, but few inside Labor are optimistic about her chances at seeing off both the official Liberal opposition and apparent alternate opposition that is One Nation.

There is a legitimate possibility Victoria will end up with some sort of One Nation-backed Coalition minority government, which presents another important data point for federal Labor.

If what started at South Australia's state election in March and then continued with the Farrer by-election builds by the end of the year in Victoria, the pressure will be on Albanese to start making serious inroads with those disaffected voters.

For now, though, Hanson's cautious approach to polling remains the most useful guide.

The numbers clearly show a shift in Australian politics, but they can't discern if this is a lasting realignment, a temporary protest vote or another false dawn for One Nation.

Trends are not destiny, and by identifying movements in voter sentiment early, Labor and the Coalition still have time to alter the trajectory.