One of the most important series of the regular season will be played this weekend at Citizens Bank Park. The Philadelphia Phillies will host the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves for a four-game wraparound series that could swing not just the division race, but also the race for a top-two seed in the National League and thus a Wild Card Series bye.
Here are the NL East standings entering this weekend's series:
Braves: 83-57
Phillies: 79-61 (4 GB)
Marlins: 71-70 (12 ½ GB)
Nationals: 67-75 (17 GB)
Mets: 63-77 (20 GB)
"I love to play against Philly," Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr. said ahead of the series (via MLB.com). "This weekend, it's like playoff games. So let's see what happens in Philadelphia."
Here are the details for this weekend's four-game series in Philadelphia. Select games can be streamed on fubo (Try for free).
Friday will be Sale's third consecutive matchup with a fellow capital-A Ace. Last time out, he threw an 11-strikeout shutout and beat Yoshinobu Yamamoto. In his start before that, Sale allowed two runs in six innings, but took the loss against Jacob Misiorowski. It seems likely Misiorowski, Sale, and Sánchez will finish in the top three of the NL Cy Young voting in some order.
On paper, the Phillies have the starting pitching advantage this series, especially now that Nola has turned his season around. Both teams had a scheduled off-day Thursday. They're going into this weekend with rested bullpens, or at least as rested as bullpens can get in the first week of September. After four grueling games, they'll all be on fumes come Tuesday.
"Keep it simple and try to win a game," Phillies interim Don Mattingly said about this weekend (via NBC Sports Philadelphia). "I feel good about us. We're showing up every day and playing, and it's not different one day to the next, win or lose. We're in a good spot."
Here now are three things to know going into this weekend's series, plus a prediction, because why not?
Atlanta's chance to take control in NL East
This weekend will be the third of four series between the two NL East rivals and the season series has been decidedly one-sided thus far. The Braves are 5-1 against the Phillies and have doubled them up on the scoreboard, 32-16. Here are their head-to-head games:
AT CITIZENS BANK PARK
April 17: Braves 9, Phillies 0 (box score)
April 18: Braves 3, Phillies 1 (box score)
April 19: Braves 4, Phillies 2 (box score)
AT TRUIST PARK
April 24: Braves 5, Phillies 3 (box score)
April 25: Phillies 8, Braves 5 in 10 innings (box score)
April 26: Braves 6, Phillies 2 (box score)
Note that all six games were played before the Phillies fired manager Rob Thomson and replaced him with Mattingly. In fact, that April 26 game was apparently the final straw for Thomson. The Phillies fired him the next day. Philadelphia started 9-19 under Thomson. They're 70-42 under Mattingly, baseball's second-best record during that time.
Two wins this weekend will clinch the season series for the Braves and secure the head-to-head tiebreaker. That would effectively add one game to their NL East lead, and more or less put the division race to bed. A split would give the Braves a four-game lead plus the tiebreaker (so really a five-game lead) with only 18 games to play. Not an insurmountable lead, but a safe one.
The Braves and Phillies won't have to wait long to see each other again after this series. They have a three-game set at Truist Park next weekend. Realistically, the Phillies need to win three of four this weekend to make sure the NL East race remains a race, then go to Atlanta next weekend and really take care of business. This weekend is a chance for the Braves to bury Philadelphia.
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Mike Axisa
They're playing for more than the NL East title
There is, potentially, more on the line than just the division title this weekend (and next weekend in Atlanta). The Dodgers have spun their wheels the last few weeks (21-24 in their last 45 games), opening the door for the NL East title to come with a Wild Card Series bye. Here are the top of the NL standings:
Brewers: 87-54
Braves: 83-57 (3 ½ GB)
Dodgers: 83-57 (3 ½ GB)
Phillies: 79-61 (7 ½ GB)
The top two seeds in each league get a bye, which automatically improves your World Series odds via skipping an entire round. Not only that, but it's a few extra days to give your players a rest, let those bumps and bruises heal, line up your pitching, etc. Outsiders can debate the merits of a bye and the layoff. Every single player wants it, though. I assure you.
Neither the Braves nor the Phillies is in serious jeopardy of missing the postseason at this point. Philadelphia sits in the top wild card spot with a six-game lead on a postseason berth, and the Braves are four games ahead of them. It would take a major collapse for either to not play October baseball.
Bryce Harper's on-base streak
At 22-8, the Phillies have baseball's best record since Aug. 1, and Bryce Harper has led the way. He has reached base in a career-best 35 consecutive games, and in those 35 games, he's hit .347/.500/.587 with 37 walks and 29 strikeouts. That's 79 times on base in 35 games. Harper is the poster child for Philadelphia's new low-strikeout offense.
Here are baseball's longest active on-base streaks:
Bryce Harper: 35 games
Heriberto Hernández: 20 games
Ozzie Albies: 17 games
Michael Harris II: 17 games
Otto Lopez: 17 games
Harper is tops by a mile, though there are two Braves in the top four. Atlanta really needs Albies, Harris, and the rest of its offense to show up this weekend. The Braves have averaged only 3.87 runs per game since Aug. 1 and 4.21 runs per game since June 1. That's an 80-game streak -- half the season -- with a below league average offense. An offense like that can only take you so far.
Prediction
The baseball fan in me hopes the Phillies win at least three games this weekend to ensure the NL East race stays a race for the next few weeks. Who doesn't love division races? I'll take it a step further and predict that is exactly what will happen.
