Senior Reform UK figures like to boast that the summer time – and parliament’s longest recess – is when the party makes hay.
Supposedly, it is when Nigel Farage and co can muscle in on the news cycle with provocative statements and new policies, painting “establishment” opponents as workshy layabouts.
Last year’s summer break came with an added opportunity, which the rightwing populist party eagerly grasped, in the form of protests against hotels housing asylum seekers. As Labour and the Tories tempered their language, Farage eagerly weighed in, warning of the prospect of “civil disobedience on a vast scale”.
Yet as August comes to an end, and with Reform preparing for its annual conference in Birmingham later this week, the party might look back on summer 2026 as a damp squib, or worse.
While almost weekly Reform press conferences have taken place and new policies have been rolled out – Robert Jenrick has been particularly busy with promises to slash the benefits bill and scrap supposed “red tape” for businesses – there has been no repeat of last summer’s unrest in England, aside from disturbances in the Norfolk market town of Thetford.
There have also been missteps of Reform’s own making, not least the hint of internal divisions related to the noisy pronouncements of its home affairs spokesperson, Zia Yusuf. Farage was eventually forced to reprimand him for calling Ben Wallace, a former Conservative defence secretary and veteran, a “traitor”.
Divisions also surfaced around the suspension of Tim Montgomerie, a high-profile activist who defected from the Conservatives.
However, perhaps the biggest error was Farage’s decision to spark a byelection in Clacton in an attempt to neutralise the pressure he was under over questions about an undeclared £5m payment by the Reform megadonor Christopher Harborne. Farage himself scaled back press events amid scrutiny after the payment was first revealed by the Guardian.
Though he cruised to victory over his closest challenger – Count Binface – the need to get the vote out meant Farage was pinned down in a corner of Essex for six weeks, rather than being free to roam the UK at will and entice media coverage in a way his lieutenants fail to.
The prospect of a “people versus the establishment” battle which Farage so clearly craved did not materialise when other main parties ignored the contest, while a parliamentary standards investigation into the payment has once again started after it was only paused during the byelection.
Opponents have taken note.
“You could say that Reform are quite good at tactics but bad at strategy, and with Clacton he made a strategic mistake because it bound him to one part of the country for six weeks,” said Giles Dilnot, the editor of ConservativeHome and a former political adviser who covered Farage for years for the BBC.
“He made that decision in anger and you never make good strategic decisions when you are angry. Then he had to take a break because of the understandable toll the byelection and all that went before it this year would have taken.”
Dilnot suggested two other issues that will have caused worries in Reform ranks. First, despite Reform consistently attacking the Tories, signs of a knockout blow do not seem to have materialised. Second, the centralised way in which Farage has always run his political projects may now be taking a toll.
“Over the 15 years it’s always the case he is both the biggest asset and biggest weakness of any party he has led. Everything is centralised, he falls out with people and voters can also be very polarised,” said Dilnot.
Recent polls have indicated that the surge in support for Reform has stalled, with the party failing to break out beyond core supporters and signs that Farage himself might even be a drag on its further growth.
A poll released last week by More in Common put the party at 23% – four percentage points behind Labour and Reform’s worst performance in 18 months. Labour also now leads Reform for the first time since the general election in Ipsos polling – 28% to 25%.
Nearly two-thirds of the public (65%) do not believe Farage is ready to be prime minister, according to Ipsos, while nearly three-quarters backed continuing the standards investigation even before the Clacton result.
Aside from struggling to shake off questions about the £5m, there was yet another reminder last week of another drag – namely Reform having to look over its shoulder at the siren call to its voters from Rupert Lowe’s hard-right Restore Britain party.
The latter was a factor in a much-watched byelection last Thursday on Dover district council, where Reform had swept the board during Kent local elections last year, but where Farage’s party was narrowly pipped by the Greens after Restore polled 10%.
Nonsense, say Reform sources, pointing to new policies and attention-grabbing moves by councils such as Kent, which announced plans to “protect” communities from immigrants.
“We’re coming out of this summer with a plethora of policies, our councils are getting on with it and at conference there will be more headlines, a proper fringe discussing ideas and a business engagement programme which is a major step up from last year,” said one.
Reform says it will use the conference at the Birmingham NEC to set out the first 100 days of what a government led by it would do. One of the biggest questions will be whether any dissent emerges.
