Risk of nuclear terrorism from US-Israel conflict with Iran remains low for now, expert says
Arms Control Association expert warns risk could increase if Iranian government collapses or significant instability emerges
Quick Look
- A US nuclear policy expert says the risk of nuclear terrorism or nuclear materials entering the black market due to the US-Israel conflict with Iran remains low for now, but could increase significantly if the Iranian government implodes or the conflict causes major internal instability.
- Such a scenario could lead to Iranian nuclear scientists attempting to sell materials to non-state actors seeking nuclear weapons.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The US and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28, striking major Iranian cities including Tehran and targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. A two-week ceasefire was announced on April 7, followed by talks on April 11 and a US naval blockade announced on April 13.
NEW YORK, April 20. /TASS/. The risk of nuclear materials entering the black market or of nuclear terrorism arising from the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran remains low for now, said Kelsey Davenport, director of nonproliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association. "Currently, the risk of nuclear terrorism or nuclear material moving to the black market [due to the Iranian crisis] remains low," Fox News quoted Davenport as saying. She added, however, that if "the current Iranian government implodes or the conflict causes significant internal instability, there is an increased risk that nuclear materials will be stolen or diverted to undeclared [storage] sites." Furthermore, she said, this could lead to Iranian nuclear scientists attempting to sell their materials to "non-state actors seeking nuclear weapons." On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, came under strikes, while vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were also targeted. US President Donald Trump announced a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran on April 7. Following talks between the United States and Iran on April 11, the US Central Command said on April 13 it would begin a naval blockade of Iran, preventing the movement of vessels heading to the country’s ports or attempting to depart from its shores.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
International atomic energy inspectors will likely be pressed to increase monitoring of Iranian nuclear sites
Likely · Within weeks
US will maintain naval blockade of Iran pending further negotiations
Very likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What is the current status of Iran's nuclear facilities and materials?
- How stable is the Iranian government amid the conflict?
- What specific security measures are in place to protect nuclear sites?
