Russia probing Nato's defences with sabotage; experts fear escalation to assassinations
A growing series of suspected Russian sabotage operations across Europe is raising fears that Moscow’s campaign of covert pressure could escalate into attempts to kill senior defence officials and other prominent targets, security experts have warned. Germany has emerged as a particular focus of concern after Berlin formally accused Russia of orchestrating an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport on August 4. German authorities said an explosive-laden drone was found near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft and that the incident matched patterns seen in previous Russian hybrid operations. Moscow has denied the allegations. The warning comes amid a wider series of suspected acts of sabotage targeting critical infrastructure, defence facilities and government systems across Europe. European officials have increasingly described such operations as part of a Russian “hybrid war” designed to disrupt support for Ukraine while remaining below the threshold of conventional conflict.
Germany fears Russian operations could turn deadly
German lawmaker and security expert Roderich Kiesewetter warned that the next phase could include attempts to kill senior figures in the defence industry. He predicted an increase in what he described as “state terrorism” on German soil, saying traces of such operations could lead back to Moscow. Former British defence minister Tobias Ellwood similarly warned that another poisoning operation resembling the 2018 Salisbury attack could occur, arguing that Russia has become adept at exploiting the “grey area” between conventional warfare and covert operations. The Salisbury attack, in which former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok, remains one of the most serious examples of suspected Russian covert action on British soil. A woman, Dawn Sturgess, later died after coming into contact with the discarded poison. But the threat is broader than assassination plots. Atlantic Council experts warn that Russia has been repeatedly testing how far it can push European countries and Nato without triggering a decisive response — using drone incursions, cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, GPS jamming and disinformation.
Disposable agents, sabotage and deniability
According to a report by Express, Western intelligence assessments indicate that Russia has increasingly relied on disposable operatives recruited online, including through Telegram, and paid in cryptocurrency. Such agents have allegedly been used in arson attacks, railway sabotage and attempted attacks while helping Moscow maintain plausible deniability. The concern extends beyond Germany. Atlantic Council experts identify the Baltic states, Poland, the Nordic countries, Moldova and Romania as potential pressure points, where Moscow could exploit vulnerabilities through airspace incursions, attacks on infrastructure, cyber operations, maritime threats and disinformation. The underlying concern is that these operations may serve as more than isolated acts of disruption. They can also function as tests of Nato's political will and ability to respond quickly and collectively. A successful limited operation could reveal gaps in allied defences or encourage Moscow to push further. The Atlantic Council also warns that Russia could increasingly target the political cohesion of the West itself. Rather than trying to defeat Nato militarily, Moscow could exploit polarisation, distrust in institutions and tensions between Washington and European capitals, amplifying narratives that Nato is obsolete, Ukraine is doomed and the US can no longer rely on its allies.
