Russian Stock Market Attempts Rebound, Ruble Under Pressure
Quick Look
- The MOEX index rose 1.26% to 2,285.61 points, while the RTS index fell 0.62%.
- The ruble weakened against foreign currencies, with the yuan rising to 11.489 rubles.
- Experts remain cautious about the stock market's short-term outlook.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Russian stock market has been under pressure, with the MOEX index recently hitting a three-year low. The ruble is also facing challenges due to demand for foreign currency.
MOSCOW, June 26. /TASS/. The MOEX index gained 1.26% at the close of the main trading session on Friday to 2,285.61 points, while the dollar-denominated RTS index fell by 0.62% to 934.35 points. The yuan rose by 31.95 kopecks to 11.489 rubles.
"The Russian stock market sank to a three-year low near 2,200 points on the MOEX index this week, from where it attempted today to stage a rebound toward 2,300 points. There is plenty of negative news, while the only positive factor for the export-oriented market is perhaps the weakening ruble. Rebounds driven solely by extreme oversold conditions usually fade quickly and are often followed by new downward moves," Andrey Smirnov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, said.
As Alexander Dudnikov, analyst at Tsifra Broker, emphasized, the Russian ruble came under mounting pressure on Friday due to elevated demand for foreign currency.
Stock market
The biggest gainers by the end of the session were ordinary shares of Lenta (+5.27%), Surgutneftegas (+4.45%), Tatneft (+4.16%), as well as FESCO shares (+4%).
The biggest losers by the close were shares of iGenetico (-9.3%), Segezha (-8.41%), Pharmsintez (-5.95%) and Abrau-Durso (-5.86%).
Experts' forecasts
BCS World of Investments forecasts the dollar at 77-79 rubles and the yuan at 11.3-11.6 rubles. "Our short-term view on the market remains cautious. In the absence of geopolitical news catalysts or significant market-positive developments, risks remain that the index could fall below 2,200 points. Should supporting triggers emerge, a vertical rise to 2,360-2,400 points would not be surprising," Smirnov stressed.
"The combination of adverse factors will continue to pressure the ruble, against which exchange rates may tend to move higher toward the upper boundaries of the ranges of 11.5-11.8 rubles per Chinese yuan, 78-80 rubles per US dollar and 89-91 rubles per euro," Dudnikov said.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
MOEX index could fall below 2,200 points without positive catalysts.
Possible · Short term
Dollar to trade between 77-79 rubles, yuan between 11.3-11.6 rubles.
Likely · Short term
Ruble exchange rates may move higher toward upper boundaries of ranges.
Likely · Short term
Open Questions
- Will the market rebound sustain?
- What specific geopolitical catalysts could emerge?
