Russian Stock Market Closes Mixed, Analysts Provide Near-Term Outlook

Russia’s stock market closed mixed on Tuesday as the ruble-denominated MOEX Index lost 0.15% to 2,190.41 points, while the dollar-denominated RTS Index gained 2.26% to 906.43 points. The yuan exchange rate against the ruble added 10 kopecks to 11.28 rubles.

"The MOEX Index remained under selling pressure today, hitting a low of around 2,117 points. From a technical standpoint, the overhang of supply and the resulting downward market momentum could be amplified by speculative traders betting on a decline," said Andrey Smirnov, stock market analyst at BCS World of Investment.

BCS World of Investment does not rule out the MOEX Index dropping below the 2,100-point mark considering the high trading volumes and the strength of the bearish trend. That said, the analyst estimates that due to the market being heavily oversold, technical rebounds could sharply push the benchmark up by 100-150 points. Forecast for the dollar and yuan exchange rates for Wednesday is 76-78 rubles and 11.1-11.4 rubles, respectively.

Freedom Global expects the MOEX Index at 2,100-2,200 points on July 8. The USD/RUB pair is expected to trade at the 76-78 rubles range, the EUR/RUB pair is projected at the 86-88 rubles range, while the CNY/RUB pair is expected at the 11.1-11.6 rubles range.

According to Tsifra Broker, the negative impact on the market will persist in the short term. From a technical standpoint, the MOEX Index is finding support around the 2,100-point mark, while overcoming resistance at the 2,300-point level is required for it to begin rising. The near-term forecast for the exchange rate is 77-80 rubles for the dollar, 87-90 rubles for the euro, and 11.2-11.5 rubles for the yuan.