Russian Stock Market Rises, Analysts Offer Mixed Forecasts Amid Central Bank Concerns
Quick Look
- Russia's MOEX Index gained 3.9% and the RTS Index rose 3.59% on Tuesday, with analysts forecasting continued recovery but expressing concerns over a potential tightening of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy.
- The ruble showed mixed movements against major currencies.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Russia’s stock market saw significant gains on Tuesday, with the MOEX Index adding 3.9% and the RTS Index gaining 3.59%, continuing a vigorous recovery from oversold conditions.
MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. Russia’s stock market closed in the green on Tuesday as the ruble-denominated MOEX Index added 3.9% to 2,078.78 points, while the dollar-denominated RTS Index gained 3.59% to 833.64 points. The yuan exchange rate against the ruble lost 4 kopecks to 11.6 rubles.
"The MOEX Index continued its vigorous recovery, heading toward the 2,100-point mark. Against the backdrop of extreme oversold conditions, positive signals sparked a strong appetite for buying," said Andrey Smirnov, stock market analyst at BCS World of Investment.
BCS World of Investment forecasts the MOEX Index to range between 1,950 and 2,100 points for Wednesday. In the short term, the company expects a moderate strengthening of the ruble, with targets of 77.5 rubles per dollar and below 11.35 rubles per yuan.
Freedom Global expects the MOEX Index at 2,000-2,100 points on Wednesday. The forecast for the dollar, euro, and yuan exchange rates is 77-79 rubles, 88-90 rubles, and 11.4-11.9 rubles, respectively.
Tsifra Broker notes that the upward trend in stock indices is being supported by falling bond yields. That said, investor concerns regarding a potential tightening of the Bank of Russia’s stance at Friday’s meeting could limit the potential of the market’s further recovery. According to analysts, the first upside target for the MOEX Index is the 2,180-point level. In the currency market, the ruble is expected to continue consolidating within the ranges of 11.3-11.8 rubles per yuan, 77-80 rubles per US dollar, and 88-91 rubles per euro.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
MOEX Index will range between 1,950 and 2,100 points on Wednesday, with an upside target of 2,180.
Likely · Within days
Ruble will moderately strengthen, targeting 77.5 per dollar and consolidating 11.3-11.8 per yuan.
Likely · Short term
Open Questions
- What will be the Bank of Russia's decision at Friday's meeting?
- How will the Bank of Russia's stance impact the market's recovery?
