S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs Amid Middle East Tensions and Earnings

It was another week under the thumb of the Iran war. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq each finished Friday at record closing highs after whipsawing on Middle East developments throughout the week. Oil prices also swung sharply as Iran and the U.S. imposed blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route. Nevertheless, the record-breaking gains ensured another positive week for the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq, which climbed 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively.

The Iran war wasn't the only focus. Corporate earnings and a split between hardware and software stocks also caught our attention. Here's a breakdown of the three themes that swayed Wall Street over the past five sessions.

War headlines

With little progress in peace talks last weekend, Monday was a down day for stocks. Tuesday wasn't much better after President Donald Trump told CNBC the U.S. was "ready" to bomb Iran if a deal wasn't made by Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. The tide turned Wednesday when the S & P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire extension. Just when the market had finally caught its bearings, another reversal came Thursday. Stocks came under pressure, and oil spiked, when Trump said he had ordered the U.S. Navy to "shoot and kill any boat" laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, stocks managed to end the week strong. Investors bet on peace talks restarting soon. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq on Friday rose 0.8% and 1.63%, respectively, to their new highs. We'll have to see if peace talks happen this weekend. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are going to Pakistan to hopefully meet with their Iranian counterparts. All war developments reminded us of one thing: Don't make any big trades on the Mideast conflict alone. There's way too much uncertainty and volatility that isn't grounded in stock fundamentals. We've been saying this since the war started on Feb. 28.

Dichotomy in tech

The buy hardware, sell software trade is back on. Investors bought tech stocks viewed as supporting the AI infrastructure buildout and dumping those seen as threatened by its adoption. The week's biggest winners? Chip stocks. The group rallied for its 18th consecutive session Friday supported by a blowout earnings report from Intel. Great news for us as investors in Nvidia, Broadcom, and most recently, Arm. On Monday, we started a position in Arm on the belief that the stock will be a winner in the era of AI agents. Shares have jumped around 33% since then. For the week, Nvidia gained 3.2% and closed Friday at a record high, while Broadcom rose nearly 4%. On Friday, we booked profits again in Broadcom, locking in gains on the stock's recent parabolic moves higher. Broadcom finished the week at a new high. On the other side of the trade was software. This group was beaten down after earnings from IBM and ServiceNow. Investors were disappointed that IBM didn't raise guidance after beats on the top and bottom lines. Margins for ServiceNow were a concern, and so was subscription revenue growth, which was dented by the war. Software stocks cascaded lower as a result, which meant a bad Thursday for Salesforce and Microsoft. For the week, Salesforce lost 2%, while Microsoft rose 0.4%. Our cybersecurity names, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, got unfairly grouped into the sell-off, but each managed to gain around 6% on the week.

Earnings

IBM and ServiceNow weren't the only quarterly earnings on our radar. GE Vernova and Dover showed us the importance of the AI buildout, while aerospace was key for reports from Boeing and Honeywell. Insatiable demand for energy fueling the AI boom was a financial windfall for GE Vernova and Dover. Shares of GE Vernova jumped nearly 14% on Wednesday's monster earnings. The Club took GE Vernova's price target up to $1,300 from $1,000. Orders for its heavy-duty natural gas turbines aren't slowing down anytime soon as hyperscalers pour billions into data center construction. "This one may be one for the ages," Jim said during Wednesday's Morning Meeting. Dover stock jumped almost 6% on Thursday's results. It was an impressive quarter that reminded us why the company belongs in the portfolio. We raised our PT to $245 from $230. Order growth was amazing. Dover's able to ride the AI wave because it plays a role in the liquid cooling of data centers. GE Vernova closed Friday at a record high. Dover ended the week about 3% shy of its Feb. 20 record close. Investors came into earnings worried about Boeing and its aerospace peers on the belief that war-induced higher jet fuel prices would hurt demand and profits. That proved to be untrue for our Boeing, which reported better-than-expected revenue on Wednesday. The stock jumped 5.5% up in a session as a result. It was also a step in the right direction for the turnaround under Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg. Honeywell shares tumbled on Thursday's release that showed Middle East disruption in its aerospace unit did hurt sales. But the quarter was more encouraging than the market made it out to be. The more important developments were Honeywell agreeing to sell its Warehouse and Workflow Solutions unit and setting June 29 as the date to spin off its aerospace business into a separate company. Automation will be the focus of the second remaining company.