Singapore Warns Pacific War Would Mirror Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan says Singapore will refuse to choose between US and China and will act in its own long-term national interests
Quick Look
- Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that a war between China and the US in the Pacific would see the Strait of Hormuz situation repeated, adding that Singapore refuses to choose between the two superpowers.
- Speaking at CNBC's CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore, he emphasized the city-state's strategic interest in keeping the Strait of Malacca open and operating under UNCLOS.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Singapore sits astride the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's most critical trade arteries. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Malacca is just two nautical miles wide, compared to 21 nautical miles for the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East conflict has highlighted how chokepoints can be weaponized.
Should a war break out between China and the U.S. in the Pacific, "what you are seeing in the Strait of Hormuz will be a dry run," Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said Wednesday. Balakrishnan made the remarks at CNBC's CONVERGE LIVE event in Singapore, responding to a question on whether the city-state was facing any pressure from Washington and Beijing to choose between the two. Singapore has relationships with both the countries, and is uniquely positioned to take advantage of developments in the U.S. and China, Balakrishnan told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick. Singapore will "refuse to choose" one over the other, he added. "The way we conduct our affairs is we assess what is in Singapore's long term national interests, and if I have to say no to Washington or Beijing or anyone else, we don't flinch from that." "We are acting in our own long term national interest. We will be useful, but we will not be made use of," he added. Separately, Balakrishnan also said that said the conflict in the Middle east had shown that "chokepoints matter," pointing out that Singapore also sits astride one of the world's critical trade arteries in the form of the Strait of Malacca. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Malacca is two nautical miles, compared to 21 nautical miles for the Strait of Hormuz. The minister was also asked if the actions of Iran in trying to extract tolls from ships passing the Strait of Hormuz would be have other countries thinking of also collecting tolls through chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca. Balakrishnan said that it was a risk if this scenario came to fruition, but the states alongside the Strait of Malacca — Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia — have a strategic interest in keeping it open and not collecting tolls. "With respect to both America and China, we have told both of them we operate on the basis of UNCLOS," he said, referring to the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea. "The right of transit passage is guaranteed for everyone. We will not participate in any attempts to close or interdict or to impose tolls in our neighborhood."
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Singapore will continue to maintain its balanced approach between US and China, rejecting pressure to align with either power
Very likely · Within months
The Strait of Malacca will remain open despite regional tensions, given the shared strategic interests of Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- How will the US and China respond to Singapore's refusal to choose sides?
- Could the Strait of Malacca actually face toll collection attempts?
- What specific military or diplomatic developments are driving these warnings?






