South Carolina ranks highest among all U.S. states in future potential demand for commercial real estate. That is the finding of a new index from the National Association of Realtors, which aims to be a crystal ball for commercial real estate investors. It uses factors in local economies to indicate future demand.
The index looks at more than 300 metropolitan markets, with separate measures for the office, industrial, retail and multifamily sectors, and measures the economic conditions of each region. The Realtors use government data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau for population and migration, which it says informs the rankings.
For the office sector, specifically, the index looks at growth in professional and business services employment. For industrial, it's manufacturing, transportation and warehousing employment growth. For retail, the NAR measures growth in retail trade as well as leisure and hospitality employment. In the multifamily sector, it incorporates population growth and net migration, both domestic and international. All of that gets combined into a single index.
"It doesn't say, 'OK, go there and just buy property,' but it says … where the data shows that the momentum is building, the demand is building," said Nadia Evangelou, principal economist and director of real estate research at NAR.
It also compares these markets to 2022, the peak of the pandemic migration boom. Raleigh, North Carolina, is the only major U.S. market that is stronger today than it was then, according to the index. Formerly superhot markets like Austin, Texas, Miami and Naples, Florida, have all declined markedly since 2022.
The strongest metropolitan market in the index is St. George, Utah, with the most significant office employment growth in the nation.
"It also has very strong population growth and in-migration, and its industrial demand is above average," Evangelou said. "So St. George, for example, is the No. 1, because one industry happened to have a good year, so there is a broader momentum over there."
While other indexes focus on the largest metropolitan markets, Evangelou said small and midsized markets could provide some of the best opportunities for investors. She cited Fayetteville, Arkansas; Huntsville, Alabama; and Spartanburg, South Carolina. Fayetteville is seeing broad-based growth, while Huntsville has one of the strongest multifamily scores in the nation, she said.
The index also breaks down where each of the four sectors is seeing the strongest demand. For example, Salem, Oregon, and Fairbanks, Alaska, are ranked highest for industrial.
"When we take a look at New York, San Francisco and the big coastal markets, we see that the large markets are still generally weaker than the fast-growing Sunbelt and smaller markets in this index," said Evangelou.
