SpaceX IPO Could Boost Bitcoin Exposure in Nasdaq 100, But Pose Risks to Tech Stocks

Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company SpaceX is planning a $75 billion IPO in June, which could make it the largest near-term public listing with a major Bitcoin treasury.

Key takeaways:

A Nasdaq 100 fast entry could expand Bitcoin exposure among the top mega-cap stocks, including Tesla.

The IPO may pressure tech stocks as passive funds sell existing Nasdaq names to buy SpaceX, which may prove bearish for Bitcoin.

SpaceX IPO set to increase Nasdaq's exposure to Bitcoin

SpaceX disclosed 18,712 BTC in its recent S-1 filing, worth roughly $1.45 billion, making it the largest known Bitcoin holder among companies preparing for, or recently filing for, a public listing.

Source: SpaceX's S1 Filing

Under Nasdaq’s newer "fast entry" rules, mega-cap IPOs can enter the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days, meaning SpaceX could quickly become one of the index’s largest constituents if its valuation lands near the $1.75 trillion–$2 trillion range after the $75 billion IPO.

As a result, Bitcoin exposure inside the Nasdaq 100 may expand beyond Tesla.

The electric carmaker already holds 11,509 BTC on its balance sheet. SpaceX, with 18,712 BTC, would give the Nasdaq 100 a second Elon Musk-linked mega-cap company with direct Bitcoin exposure.

"With the SpaceX IPO, the Mag 7 will become the Mag 8," said Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, while referring to the elite group of mega-cap tech stocks, namely Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla.

He added:

"25% of the Mag 8 will have Bitcoin on their balance sheet."

Bitcoin still faces downside risks

SpaceX IPO may be "bad news for tech stocks," according to analyst Nic Puckrin.

"If it's added to the Nasdaq 100 in a 'fast entry', passive funds have to buy it & sell other stock," Puckrin said in a Friday post, adding:

"The higher SpaceX goes, the more they buy of it and sell of others. It's going to act like a massive capital vacuum."

Puckrin based his outlook on JPMorgan estimates showing that Nvidia could face more than $20 billion in passive outflows if SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100.

JPMorgan projections for rebalancing outflows from passive investors. Source: Financial Times/Nic Puckrin

Apple could face roughly $16 billion in estimated passive outflows, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla also likely to serve as funding sources for the SpaceX rebalance.

Bitcoin has traded closely with mega-cap tech for most of 2026.

As of Friday, BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the Mag 7 stocks, stood near +0.81.

BTC/USD vs. MAGS correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView

For traders, that means BTC has recently moved in the same direction as major tech stocks more often than not.

So, if the SpaceX rebalance pressures Nvidia, Apple, Tesla and other large tech names, Bitcoin may also face short-term downside risk as investors reduce exposure to the broader risk-on trade.

How low can BTC price go?

On-chain metrics show Bitcoin's apparent demand has dropped to its lowest in four months, which may lead to months of consolidation.

That weak demand backdrop also lines up with BTC’s current technical structure. Since February, Bitcoin has been moving inside an upward-sloping bear flag, a pattern that often forms during a pause in a broader downtrend.

For now, BTC’s immediate downside target sits around the $73,000–$74,000 range, near the flag’s lower trendline. A rebound from that area could send the price back toward the flag’s upper boundary near $85,000.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Related: Bitcoin liquidity balance hints at developing rally toward $80K

The flag setup could open the door to a deeper decline toward $56,000, based on the pattern’s measured move, if BTC closes decisively under the lower trend line.