Three rockets, three trajectories. Just a few months ago, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic seemed launched into the same orbit: that of a historic IPO, capable of sucking the liquidity out of entire markets, including crypto. At the beginning of September, the three trajectories took very different paths. One experienced a descent then started to catch up, the other cut the engines, the third always aims higher. So let's take the time of this sunny weekend to take stock.
SpaceX, the rise that does not erase everything
On June 12, SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq at $135 per share. It closed its first session at just over $160, a 19% jump that took it to around $2.1 trillion in valuation. The stock then plunged all summer, reaching a floor of $104.83, falling well below its introductory price.
Since then, it has recovered by more than 40%. At the close of September 4, the stock was worth $149.74, representing a capitalization of approximately $2,010 billion, almost that of the first day of trading, but still 34% below its intraday record of $225.64 reached in the wake of the IPO.
Between the two, the second quarter results, published at the beginning of August, made the markets dizzy: $7.81 billion in revenue (+92% year-on-year), a net loss of $541 million, halved compared to last year, and above all $18.4 billion in investment expenses. These results caused the stock to fall by 8% on the same day of publication.
OpenAI, the wait that looks like a confession
For his part, Sam Altman filed a confidential S-1 file on June 8, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley already in charge, for a listing hoped for between September and the end of the year.
At the end of August, financial director Sarah Friar showered these ambitions on employees: the company will be listed in 2027, or perhaps earlier, but nothing is set in stone. A polite way of saying that 2026 probably won't be the year. Some operations benefit from remaining private a little longer, she suggested, and the valuation of $852 billion that OpenAI still has to justify is probably not for nothing.
Anthropic, the only one heading straight towards October
Meanwhile, Anthropic is not giving up. According to six investors cited by the Financial Times on August 13, a listing could exceed $2,000 billion as early as October, driven by an annualized turnover which could climb up to $120 billion by the end of the year, words from shareholders, not yet an official timetable.
One of them even goes so far as to mention 3,000 billion, on the basis of growth of 800% per year. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have already been piloting the operation since June.
The company founded by the Amodei brothers still has a more sensitive issue. On June 12, the American government forced it to suspend access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for any foreign user, citing a national security risk. The two models remained offline for 19 days, until the restrictions were lifted on June 30 – an episode that has since been resolved, but which served as a reminder of the company's dependence on the good graces of Washington, against a backdrop of ever cheaper Chinese competition.
Three companies, three calendars, a single market that absorbs the shocks. The trajectory of SpaceX alone is enough to remind us that a mega-IPO that breaks records on D-day can just as easily plunge as rebound in the months that follow.
The contrast remains clear: Anthropic is rushing towards a record listing by relying on the promises of its investors, OpenAI is procrastinating, and SpaceX has just experienced in accelerated pace what perhaps awaits the other two, once their day of glory on the stock market has passed.
