SportsLine Model Predicts 2026 Fantasy Football Busts Including David Montgomery and James Cook
Quick Look
SportsLine's predictive model has identified Houston Texans running back David Montgomery and Buffalo Bills running back James Cook as potential 2026 Fantasy football busts based on ADP discrepancies and projected performance, with the model simulating the NFL season 10,000 times to generate rankings and sleepers.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The 2026 NFL regular season is set to begin in four days, prompting widespread fantasy football drafts. Last season, several high-profile players underperformed due to injury or decreased production, creating lineup gaps for fantasy managers.
The 2026 NFL regular season gets underway in just four days, and thousands of Fantasy football drafts will go on the clock during that span. Avoiding 2026 Fantasy football busts is one of the best ways to win a league as players such as Lamar Jackson, Ashton Jeanty, Justin Jefferson and Mark Andrews left gaping holes in Fantasy lineups last season due to injury and/or a lack of production. Jeanty, Kyren Williams and Cam Skattebo are some of the player this year who have fallen in the latest ADP data this year.
Who should you target in your fantasy football draft strategy, and which players should fall on your list of potential 2026 Fantasy football busts and riskiest picks? Before finalizing your 2026 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2026 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last year, the model accurately predicted that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin would fall well short of his top-50 ADP. The result: A season after piling up nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdown catches, McLaurin had career lows in receiving yards (582) and receiving touchdowns (3). Injuries were a factor, but his per-game averages were down across the board as well, so anybody who avoided him in Fantasy drafts dodged a major headache.
The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor's monstrous season in 2021 and correctly predicting C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Additionally, it's called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017.
Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2026, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2026 Fantasy football busts
One of the 2026 Fantasy football busts the model is predicting: Houston Texans running back David Montgomery. The 29-year-old was a high-volume touchdown scorer in Detroit, but now he heads to a less explosive offense. Some Fantasy players are bullish on his upside since he's not sharing a backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, but he's still expected to split snaps with Woody Marks, who had more than 900 yards from scrimmage as a rookie.
The latest ADP data shows Montgomery going off the board around pick No. 52. SportsLine's model, however, has him in the same tier as later-round picks like Jaylen Warren and even 10th-rounder Kenneth Gainwell, making Montgomery a risky pick in the fourth or fifth round. See more busts at SportsLine.
Another bust that SportsLine's Fantasy football rankings 2026 have identified: Bills running back James Cook. Cook is going off the board with an ADP around No. 9 overall and is the fifth running back being taken on average. SportsLine's model, however, ranks him as RB No. 10, behind players such as Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, saying that he should be more of a late-second or even third round pick.
Cook has stacked two impressive seasons and was the RB6 a year ago, so it's understandable why he's getting first-round consideration in many drafts. He did fumble at a higher rate last season, however, and he's not an elite target out of the backfield. Also, Josh Allen always looms as a touchdown vulture for Buffalo, as these factors are why the model is leaning to other high-end backs early. See which other Fantasy football busts 2026 to pick here.
How to find proven 2026 Fantasy football rankings
SportsLine is also fading one of the first six receivers off the board in early 2026 Fantasy football drafts. The model ranks this player barely inside the top 10 and is calling for him to be one of the biggest busts in the league this year. You can only see who it is, and the 2026 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.
So which 2026 Fantasy Football busts should you be steering clear of, and which high-end WR should you completely fade? Visit SportsLine now to get 2026 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that helped managers avoid a disastrous Terry McLaurin season in 2025.
2026 Fantasy football ADP
(PPR, via CBS)
Get Fantasy football cheat sheets at SportsLine.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
David Montgomery will underperform relative to his ADP, ranking in the same tier as Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
Likely · Within weeks
James Cook will be overvalued at his current ADP and should be drafted as a late-second or third-round pick instead of a top-10 selection.
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Which specific wide receiver is the model fading among the first six off the board?
- What is the exact projected point total for David Montgomery and James Cook according to the model?
- How does the model account for potential mid-season injuries or trades in its 10,000 simulations?
