Dalal Street is set for a busy week, with India’s GDP growth data and key US jobs report likely to steer market sentiment. Investors will also track crude oil prices, foreign investor flows and auto sales for further cues. One of the most awaited domestic triggers is India’s Q1 FY27 GDP data, due on August 31. The numbers are expected to offer greater clarity on the pace of economic growth and influence broader risk sentiment.
"The coming week is expected to remain highly eventful, with domestic GDP data and global economic releases likely to determine market direction. India's Q1 FY27 GDP data will be released on August 31. Investors will also monitor India's August manufacturing and services PMI readings, GST collections, foreign exchange reserves and movement in the rupee," Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, told PTI. Apart from the GDP figures, market participants will watch India's August manufacturing and services PMI readings, GST collections, foreign exchange reserves and movements in the rupee. Auto sales and foreign portfolio investment flows will also be on investors' radar. FPIs invested Rs 30,919 crore in Indian equities in August, extending their buying streak to a second consecutive month.
Global cues are likely to gain importance later in the week, with the US August non-farm payrolls report scheduled for September 4. Mishra said the employment data would be the most important trigger for markets, as its outcome could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's September policy decision, the US dollar, Treasury yields and emerging-market fund flows. "The outcome could significantly influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's September policy decision, the US dollar, Treasury yields and emerging-market fund flows," Mishra added. Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money said that domestic GDP figures would also be important amid higher energy prices and the unresolved Middle East conflict.
"On the domestic front, first-quarter GDP data will be important factor for broader risk sentiment, offering greater clarity on the pace of domestic growth against the backdrop of elevated energy prices and an unresolved Middle East conflict that has disrupted global supply lines and contributed to higher commodity prices." Ponmudi added that US monetary policy had become the dominant global catalyst following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole. "Markets will look ahead to the August jobs report, due September 4, along with the next inflation reading, as key data points in determining whether the recently increased expectations of a September rate hike hold or ease," Ponmudi said.
The domestic market enters the new week after both benchmark indices ended lower last week. The BSE benchmark Sensex fell 276.32 points, or 0.35 per cent, while the NSE Nifty declined 76.35 points, or 0.31 per cent. Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, founder & CEO of HST Wealth, a research analyst firm, said investors would assess the domestic growth outlook along with the impact of US employment data on expectations around the Fed's September decision.
"India's first-quarter GDP data on Monday will offer insights into the domestic growth trajectory, while Friday's US non-farm payrolls report is expected to influence global market sentiment as investors reassess expectations for the Federal Reserve's September policy decision following Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole address," Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, a research analyst firm, said.
