Super El Niño Could Strain India's Power Grid, Slow Coal Transition: Report
Quick Look
- A potential super El Niño could strain India's power grid more than any other country's and slow its transition away from coal, according to a CREA report.
- An estimated 18 TWh power deficit is predicted, likely requiring increased coal generation.
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Why It Matters
A potential super El Niño could strain India's power grid and slow its transition away from coal, according to a new report by CREA. This could lead to an estimated 18 TWh power deficit, requiring increased coal generation.
A potential super El Niño could put more pressure on India's power grid than any other country's and slow its transition away from coal, according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
A super El Niño risks straining India’s power grid more than any other electricity network globally and would slow the country’s shift away from coal, according to a new study.
Rising demand for air conditioning, coupled with lower output from hydroelectric units and wind farms, could drive an estimated 18 terawatt-hour power deficit in the 12 months starting from July, said the report published Monday by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a nonprofit.
The shortfall, the largest among 110 countries analysed, would most likely need to be met with an increase in coal-fired electricity generation, CREA said.
India forecasts coal’s share in the nation’s generation mix will fall to 64% by 2027 and to nearly 50% over the next decade, but it remains at more than 70% even after a drop in thermal power production last year. Extreme conditions like a potential super El Niño — a weather pattern that drives up global temperatures — threaten to slow down the transition to cleaner electricity.
While India is proving successful in deploying solar farms, “battery storage and grid infrastructure have to be accelerated,” to enable the nation to begin to reduce the need for fossil fuels, Nandikesh Sivalingam, director at CREA, said in an interview.
“While we run the existing coal plants, whatever new demand is going to come should be absorbed by clean technologies,” Sivalingam said.
Solar acted as a critical buffer against soaring temperatures this year. Between January and May, the technology met almost a quarter of daytime peak electricity consumption, helping to keep thermal power output below 2024 levels despite record-breaking heat waves.
Adding battery energy storage systems would allow India to further limit its reliance on coal, especially during the evening hours, CREA said.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Increased reliance on coal-fired electricity generation.
Likely
Open Questions
- How will India adapt its grid infrastructure?
- What is the timeline for battery storage deployment?
- Will coal generation increase significantly?
