Psychology is not an exact science. That may irk a few researchers in the field. But it is important to mention upfront: Researching the psychology of conspiracy theories — why people are drawn to believing them and the effect they have on those people — is a complicated field of research, and conclusions are difficult to derive.
That is due, in part, to one of the basic problems with psychology, whether it's in treatment or in research, and that is that it relies on people's self-awareness.
If we take the example of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, some people continue to maintain it was "inside job", orchestrated by a secretive and powerful club of evil doers in the US government, intent on controlling citizens' lives by fear. And that may be true. But it may also be true that you, as a believer in such a theory, have always felt powerful people — your parents or teachers — have controlled and curtailed your agency in life. You may even have a false memory of how the terrorist attacks evolved on that day in 2001. Then, if someone asked you, "What really happened?", could you really say it for sure? I couldn't.
Self-report data is an issue in conspiracy research
Whether as patients or participants in a study, we may be asked to "self-report" — to look inside ourselves and express how we feel and why.
Self-reporting is an established way of measuring conspiracies, said Neil Dagnall, a professor of psychology at Manchester Metropolitan University, in an interview with DW.
But self-report data are "not perfect," he added.
They can be difficult data to handle because each judgment a person makes about themselves is relative, inherently subjective, and open to outside influence and bias. People's answers can change from day-to-day, especially when they involve emotions or feelings about mental state, depending on a multitude of events and experiences in our lives. In addition, there is no common scale.
Say, for example, you and a friend were asked, "Are you happy?" You may both say "yes," but your reasons for doing so may be completely different and be subject to different variables. The same goes for a question like, "Do you believe in conspiracy theories?"
"The judgment I'm making is a relative one. What's my norm? Am I comparing it to my friends who don't believe in conspiracies or am I in a group of people who do believe in conspiracies? We're always making relative judgments about our psychological propensities," said Dagnall.
Which suggests we're unlikely to ever get a definitive answer. Self-report data suggest correlations, not causation.
In a study on conspiratorial beliefs and well-being, which Dagnall co-authored and published in May 2026, "self-report data" was specifically highlighted as a limitation.
This makes it very difficult to assess whether "conspiracy belief" or "conspiracy ideation" is good or bad for people and their sense of well-being. Especially as people who seek and believe in conspiracy theories often start out with a skewed view of reality.
Observing behavior can offer clues
There are ways of "triangulating" self-report data, as the authors of the study put it, to get a more reliable, objective reading of a person's emotional, or psychological, state.
For example, psychologists use behavioral observations, like measuring heart rate variability, or Galvanic Skin Responses such as the electrical conductance of a person's skin, which is affected by sweating under stress. You can also retest participants' self-reported data, and therefore its reliability, by asking the same questions at different points in time.
But there is another factor that complicates research into the psychology of conspiracy theories, and that is that they, and people who believe in them, are more common than we like to think or admit (even when we believe them ourselves).
"The idea that people who believe in conspiracies in general populations are remarkable or different is not true," said Dagnall.
The truth: 'conspiracies theories are common'
Most of us, at some point in our lives, are bound to see something strange or stressful in society and question whether we, as individuals or as a member of a group, accept the accepted truth of how that thing or event came about. It can be a healthy sign of a questioning mind.
There are positive examples of conspiracy theories that happened to kickstart investigations that then revealed the horrible truth of government corruption.
Take Partygate during the COVID pandemic in the UK or — the mother of all conspiracies — Watergate during the Nixon Administration in the US.
And there are other conspiracy theories, such as the one that nobody has ever landed on the moon, which you can either take seriously or laugh about.
It all comes down to "the degree to which we engage in conspiracies generally, and the extent to which they interfere and disrupt our everyday lives," said Dagnall.
For Dagnall, who doesn't believe in the 1969 moon landing, it doesn't seem to disrupt his daily life — at least, that is what he self-reported to DW.
But for some people, conspiracy theories are disruptive and can lead to a sustained sense of dissatisfaction.
"Ample studies suggest that exposure to conspiracy theories or belief in them might lead to more negative emotions, heightened anxiety, or even paranoid thoughts," said Zuzanna Molenda, a researcher at the Polish Academy of Sciences and lead-author of a 2023 study on emotion dysregulation and belief in conspiracy theories.
Some people may be primed to more readily believe in conspiracy theories because they generally struggle to deal with psychological threat and distress. When they then seek answers in conspiracy theories, their pre-existing negative psychology may be enhanced.
"If anything, the available evidence suggests that rather than help people manage difficult emotions, conspiracy beliefs may be accompanied by or contribute to further distress," wrote Molenda in an email to DW.
No long-term benefit from conspiracy belief
There may be some psychological benefit to conspiracy theories, said Molenda, but only in the short term.
"Conspiracy beliefs can provide people with a sense of explanation and understanding when events feel uncertain or difficult to make sense of. For some people, they might also be a source of entertainment and fun. For others, they can provide a sense of belonging and connection with others who share the same beliefs, and they can be an important part of social identity," Molenda said.
But these potential benefits do not necessarily translate into better well-being in the longer term, said Molenda.
In the end, we're all searching for meaning and purpose in life. If we find a satisfactory answer, it gives us, what psychologists call presense — a direction in life, and that is good.
But if your search only leads to more uncertainty, more anxiety, and more doubt in your purpose in life, then that's bad. "And people who believe in conspiracies are asking questions but not getting answers," said Dagnall.
