Trader Loses Nearly $1 Million on Spain vs. Cabo Verde World Cup Draw
Quick Look
- A single trader lost nearly $1 million on Polymarket after Cabo Verde drew with Spain in a surprising World Cup match.
- The trader bet on a Spanish win, a highly favored outcome according to oddsmakers and a Goldman Sachs model.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Cabo Verde achieved a stunning draw against Spain in a World Cup match, an outcome considered highly unlikely by oddsmakers. The result led to a significant financial loss for a trader on Polymarket.
A single trader on Polymarket lost almost US$1 million when Cabo Verde fought Spain to a stunning draw on Monday in one of the most unlikely outcomes in recent World Cup history, powered by a 40-year-old goalkeeper who left the pitch in tears.
The losing bettor had wagered on what oddsmakers saw as an almost-certain Spanish win, according to trading records from Polymarket, one of the largest prediction market exchanges.
Spain, the most recent European champions, were widely considered to be the favourites to win this year’s Fifa World Cup, with a Goldman Sachs model giving them a 26 per cent chance to prevail.
Cabo Verde, on the other hand, had never played in the tournament before and have no high-profile professional players on its roster.
The outcome was by far the most unexpected result in the first few days of a tournament that has already seen a number of surprising draws, including Japan’s late comeback on Sunday to draw with the Netherlands.
Behind the unlikely triumph was Josimar José Évora Dias, or Vozinha as he is known, the goalie who made seven decisive saves in the match.
Open Questions
- What was the exact odds for Spain to win?
- Will this impact future betting on similar events?
