Transatlantic Trade Relations One Year After Turnberry Deal

A year ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump struck a trade deal in Turnberry, Scotland, shaking hands under the spotlight of the world's media after weeks of trade disputes.

Defended by the Commission as the best deal it could secure, the agreement imposed 15 percent US tariffs on imports from the EU, while the EU committed to removing its duties on most US industrial products.

The Europeans also pledged to invest €520 billion in the US and purchase €700 billion in US energy by 2028, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and nuclear energy products.

The Turnberry agreement was supposed to draw a line under the dispute. Instead, it opened a new chapter.

Over the past year, Trump has repeatedly threatened the EU with new tariffs, slowing the implementation of the agreement on the European side, where lawmakers froze its ratification. Following negotiations between the EU's co-legislators, the bloc eventually removed its tariffs on 1 July.

On the US side, the process has been no smoother. The White House had to adopt new tariffs after the US Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that the duties imposed on US trading partners in 2025 were illegal.

The new tariffs, introduced under a different legal basis, are set to expire at the end of this week, on 24 July, unless Congress extends them – a prospect considered unlikely with the midterm elections approaching.

As the Turnberry deal marks its first anniversary, here are four things to know about the state of transatlantic trade relations.

1. Trade with the US increased in 2025

Despite the tariff war, transatlantic trade has not shrunk. Quite the opposite: EU-US goods and services trade rose by 4.5 percent to €1.8 trillion in 2025, as companies rushed shipments ahead of Trump's tariffs, offsetting the slowdown later in the year.

Since January 2025, US importers have had to pay around €31 billion in additional duties, compared with €7 billion in pre-tariff years.

Following the Supreme Court ruling, however, some have already been refunded. US data released in mid-July shows that $81 billion was paid back for tariffs imposed globally on the country's trading partners.

2. Europe is on track to meet its investment pledges

According to the European Commission, the EU will keep its promise to invest massively in the US. In early 2025, it reported that EU companies had pledged €242 billion in investments across various US sectors, including cars, IT, chemicals and food.

Regarding energy investments, an EU senior official said the €700 billion target will be exceeded. The Commission said that, in 2025 alone, EU buyers imported energy products and signed deals worth more than $250 billion.

As the Iran war broke out and the EU phased out Russian gas supplies, purchases of US LNG and oil reached record levels. New nuclear projects will also be carried out in cooperation with US partners.

3. Negotiations continue on exemptions, steel and aluminium

The EU-US trade saga is far from over. Brussels and Washington have started negotiating new tariff exemptions for EU goods. The Turnberry agreement referred to these future discussions, but the White House wanted the EU to implement its side of the agreement before talks could begin.

Last autumn, the Commission, together with European businesses, drew up a list of hundreds of products for which it hopes to restore pre-existing tariff levels. The list, recently transmitted to the US side, covers around €150 billion worth of EU exports and includes iconic products such as Roquefort, olive oil, wines and spirits.

The Europeans also hope to make progress on steel and aluminium. The US still imposes 50 percent tariffs on imports from trading partners worldwide. However, the Commission expects the discussions to be challenging, as the White House wants to bring production back to the US while also dealing with massive Chinese overcapacity.

4. The US is preparing new tariffs

Following the Supreme Court ruling, the White House had to rely on a new legal basis to impose tariffs reaching the 15 percent ceiling set by the Turnberry agreement. But those tariffs expire on Friday, and the US is already looking for new ways to impose additional duties.

European officials therefore expect the White House to introduce new tariffs targeting forced labour and overcapacity following investigations launched under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The forced labour tariffs have already been announced and are expected to come first, despite the EU arguing that it already has legislation banning forced labour.

“Of course we do not agree with the findings on forced labour, and we've made that very clear to our United States counterparts,” an EU senior official said. “But the main objective is to make sure that the agreement is respected and that our companies can benefit from the stability and predictability that was set out there.”

So as long as those future tariffs don't exceed the 15 percent cap, the EU will not go against them.