US-Israel Relations After Trump: Possible Scenarios for the 2028 Elections

The post-Trump period may witness a critical rupture in US-Israeli relations that could change the political balances that have existed for many years. As the 2028 presidential elections approach, voices questioning Washington's military, diplomatic and financial support to Israel are gaining strength, not only in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, but also in the rising 'America First' line of the Republican Party.

In the ranking, we took into account not only the candidates' attitudes towards Israel but also their likelihood of reaching the White House in 2028. The list starts with a relatively low-risk scenario for Israel and progresses to the worst-case scenario.

We saved the surprise for last...

TUCKER CARLSON AXIS RIGHT-POPULISTS

Republican Party

The movement is more important here than the candidate. Since Carlson has stated that he will not support the Republican Party in its current form, it is technically not correct to classify him as a Republican candidate. But for Israel, it represents 'one of the most radical strategic breaks' on the American right:

He argues that the Iran war is blamed on the USA for Israel's interests and tries to move the foreign policy axis of America First thought away from Israel. The Washington Post still rates him as a 'surprise candidate' for 2028.

The risk is very high for Israel

Chances of presidency low, chances of influence high

RO KHANNA

New Democrats/Democratic Party against aid to Israel

Khanna, one of the leading actors of an extremely bad scenario for Israel, openly stated in 2026 that in the near future, Israel may lose the financial and military aid of the USA, that Washington may define Israel as a 'racist' and 'pro-genocidal' regime, and that, not content with this, 'the support in the UN may be withdrawn'. He acted together with Republican Thomas Massie against the regulation expanding military aid with Israel.

The risk is very high for Israel

Low-medium probability of occurrence

GAVIN NEWSOM

Centre-left wing / Democratic Party

The real strategic problem for Israel here is that placing conditions on Israel is no longer just the policy of the progressive/left wing in the Democratic Party, but has moved to the very center of the party.

Newsom is one of the most serious candidates in 2028, and with him the hard line on Israel is becoming increasingly visible among Democratic presidential candidates.

The risk for Israel is medium-high

High probability of occurrence

ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (AOC)

Democratic socialist bloc / Democratic Party

AOC has voted against all votes involving US support for Israel, including Iron Dome in 2026. It is said that if he becomes president, he may 'end the unconditional military aid model'. But the problem is more on the probability side. Because it seems significantly difficult for him to win the Democratic nomination, at least for now.

The risk is very high for Israel

The probability of occurrence is medium

JD VANCE

'America First' wing / Republican Party

This is the most important scenario right now; because Vance is also by far the favorite name among the Republican candidates. Reuters describes him as the 'possible successor after Trump' and lists Rubio as his main rival.

Vance does not reject the Israeli alliance and has praised the relationship in some meetings; therefore not 'anti-Israel'. But he is highly skeptical of foreign interventions, openly resists Washington's determination of Israel's policy, and harshly criticizes Israel's opposition to the Iran deal.

Additionally, his refusal to purge the Tucker Carlson line from the Republican Party creates serious concern in pro-Israel Republican circles.

The risk is high for Israel

The probability of occurrence is very high

THE PROBLEM IS NOT JUST A QUESTION OF 'WHO WILL WIN'

Criticism of Israel in the USA no longer comes only from the left wing of the Democratic Party. The central circles of the party also largely agree with these criticisms, and the nature, scale and suitability of the relations, especially 'military aid', are being questioned harshly. The situation is no different in the America First wing of the Republican Party.

In such a situation, if the progressive/left wing in the Democratic Party and the anti-interventionist line in the Republicans strengthen at the same time, the room for action in Washington-Tel Aviv relations may narrow more than ever before, regardless of who the president is.

For all these reasons, the 2028 elections will only be a question of 'who will win?' for Israel. It's not just a question.