U.S. Climate Prediction Center Warns of Potentially Historic El Niño Event

El Niño is strengthening and there’s a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.

"During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," forecasters said.

El Niño naturally occurs when weakening trade winds build up warmer ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon generally raises global temperatures and alters weather patterns, causing droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others.

"The current El Nino is strong and will continue to strengthen over the coming months and has to be the strongest El Nino on record," said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.

Drought linked to El Niño has ruined bean and corn crops across Central America's Dry Corridor, deepening food and water insecurity for rural households, Oxfam reported.

"We are currently seeing drier conditions across Central America, and that should continue for the next few months while we are in the El Nino influence," said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather in Finland.

Concerns surrounding El Niño have heightened global food market supply fears, pushing up staple prices including vegetable oils and sugar, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

"We do expect some additional warming over the next month or so before a slow decline later this winter and spring,” Keeney added.

“This should equate to increased rain later this fall and over the winter across the central and southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast, and should result in a better year for winter wheat production in the central and southern Plains.”