U.S. Treasury Yields Fall Amid Ceasefire Hopes, Oil Prices Surge
Quick Look
- Treasury yields declined Tuesday, influenced by global trends and a reported ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, boosting investor sentiment.
- Oil prices surged Monday following reports of stalled Iran-U.S. talks and potential Strait of Hormuz closure.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Treasury yields rose on Monday following reports of stalled Iran-U.S. talks and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which also pushed oil prices higher. President Trump's statements on the talks were mixed.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, following global yields lower, as President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel bolsters investor sentiment.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the key benchmark for U.S. government borrowing — fell more than 4 basis points to 4.434%.
The 2-year Treasury note yield, which more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy, fell more than 3 basis points to 4.018%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield fell more than 3 basis points to 4.956%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Global bond yields broadly eased on Tuesday, with 10-year European sovereign yields falling by 5-7 basis points across the continent.
Borrowing costs rose on Monday after Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that Iranian negotiators were halting talks with the U.S. following Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and Tehran could opt to completely close the Strait of Hormuz.
The developments pushed oil prices higher on the first day of June. Prices of West Texas Intermediate futures jumped 5.93% to close at $92.54 per barrel, while Brent crude , the international oil price benchmark, closed up 4.24% at $97.79 per barrel.
President Donald Trump appeared unconcerned over the prospect of peace negotiations with Iran falling through, telling CNBC later Monday, "I don't care if they're over, honestly."
But later Monday, Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, "Talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Investors are struggling to digest how the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah affects the chances of a broader ceasefire arrangement between Washington and Tehran.
Netanyahu, in an X post later Monday, said he told Trump that "if Hezbollah does not cease attacking our cities and citizens—Israel will attack terror targets in Beirut."
"This stance of ours remains unchanged. In parallel, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon," Netanyahu wrote.
Elsewhere, traders will be monitoring JOLTS job openings data for April.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
JOLTS job openings data for April will be released.
Very likely · Within days
Open Questions
- Will the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel hold?
- How will the JOLTS job openings data impact Fed policy expectations?
- What is the U.S. stance on the ongoing conflict if talks with Iran do not resume?
- What are the specific details of the ceasefire agreement?






