UAE Exits OPEC and OPEC+ From May 2026, Analyst Warns of Cartel Weakening

MOSCOW, April 28. /TASS/. The UAE's decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+ could set an example for other member countries and deal a significant blow to the cartel, Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko told TASS. "The decision to withdraw deals a significant blow to the cartel and reduces its ability to further balance the oil market after the conflict ends and the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked," he said. In his opinion, this decision will have a long-term negative impact on oil prices and lead to a reduction in OPEC+'s influence. "In the long term, after traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the UAE could begin to increase production without regard for OPEC quotas, and this could be a negative factor for prices. The UAE's example is an example for other cartel countries. OPEC+'s influence is significantly diminished after the escalation in the Middle East," the analyst said. Dudchenko noted that UAE oil production currently stands at 3.5 million bpd, approximately 3.5% of global demand, but following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, it fell by almost 1.5 million bpd in March. The country participated in the OPEC+ voluntary production reduction agreement, which was concluded in April 2023 and November 2023. The analyst noted, that with the onset of the conflict, production quotas (the UAE's quota in April and May was approximately 3.4 million bpd) lost their meaning, as the country had already significantly reduced production due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, the Emirates state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to exit OPEC and OPEC+ from May 1, 2026. According to the agency, the UAE's decision is consistent with the country's long-term economic strategy.