UAE’s exit from OPEC may ease long-term oil prices for Asian importers
Rystad Energy says the Strait of Hormuz closure is delaying the market impact of the UAE’s planned production shift
Rystad Energy said Asian economies dependent on oil imports could benefit from the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC, although the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz may delay any immediate decline in energy prices.
Aditya Saraswat, Rystad Energy’s Middle East senior vice-president, told the South China Morning Post that “The Strait of Hormuz closure is masking the immediate impact of this departure, but once the strait reopens, a UAE pumping freely towards 4.8 million barrels per day represents a real shift of 1 to 2 per cent of global demand.”
He said that for Asian countries such as Japan, India and South Korea, which are heavily dependent on energy imports, “that’s structurally good news on prices long-term, even if the near-term picture is painful with Asian refineries already cutting runs sharply.”
According to the South China Morning Post, the UAE is currently producing 3.4 million barrels a day under OPEC quota limits. The publication said the country has proven reserves of more than 100 billion barrels and is expanding capacity toward 5 million barrels per day.
Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. It said the country still shares the goal of stabilizing the global fuel market and that its oil production policy will take global supply and demand into account.
