UAE's OPEC Exit Reduces Group's Global Oil Share, Amid Regional Production Disruptions
Quick Look
- The UAE's departure from OPEC reduces the group's global crude oil production share from 35% to 31%, with Saudi Arabia remaining the largest producer.
- Regional production is further disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure, affecting Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, despite the UAE and Saudi Arabia's ability to reroute exports.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
OPEC, formed in 1960, coordinates petroleum policies among its members, significantly influencing the global oil market.
The UAE's departure from OPEC has reduced the group's share of global crude oil production from 35% to 31%, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2025, OPEC produced an estimated 28.0 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil, with the UAE contributing significantly. Without the UAE, OPEC's production share would have been 31%.
The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, accounted for about 46% of global crude oil production in 2025, dropping to around 42% without the UAE. Saudi Arabia remains the largest OPEC producer, with 9.3 million b/d output and an 11.6 million b/d production capacity in 2025.
The UAE announced its OPEC exit on April 28, 2026, effective May 1, after joining in 1967 as Abu Dhabi. It produced an average of 3.4 million b/d in 2025, with an effective production capacity of 4.2 million b/d.
The conflict in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure have disrupted regional oil production. The EIA estimates production disruptions could rise to 11.25 million b/d by May 2026, impacting Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. However, the UAE and Saudi Arabia can reroute exports around the Strait.
Iraq may face a 3.19 million b/d production shutdown in May, Saudi Arabia 3.29 million b/d, Kuwait 1.98 million b/d, and the UAE 1.35 million b/d.
The UAE's exit and these disruptions alter OPEC's dynamics, with Saudi Arabia's influence potentially increasing.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Increased reliance on Saudi Arabia within OPEC
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Long-term implications of the UAE's exit on OPEC's cohesion
